[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 232341
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON DEC 23 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM E OF TALLAHASSEE
FLORIDA AT 30N83W TO 25N86W TO THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR 18N93W.
NORTHERLY GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LOCATED S OF 22N W OF 94W WITH
SPEEDS AS HIGH AS 40 KNOTS. GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY MAINLY S OF 21N W OF 92W.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC/TAFB HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN
COAST NEAR 6N10W TO 4N20W TO 5N30W TO 4N40W TO THE COAST OF
SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 0N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
2N-8N BETWEEN 21W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM E OF TALLAHASSEE
FLORIDA AT 30N83W TO 25N86W TO THE MEXICAN COAST AT 18N93W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. GALE
FORCE WINDS ARE OVER THE SW GULF W OF FRONT. SEE ABOVE.
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER THE GULF W OF FRONT. FAIR WEATHER
IS OVER THE SE GULF... SOUTH FLORIDA...AND W CUBA. PRESENTLY
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 50'S OVER THE NORTH GULF STATES...AND IN
THE 70'S OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS PRODUCING SW FLOW. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER
THE GULF EXCEPT OVER THE SE GULF WHERE STRONG SUBSIDENCE
PERSISTS. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A THE COLD FRONT TO EXIT THE
GULF AND ENTER THE W ATLANTIC AND NW CARIBBEAN WITH CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

20-25 KT WINDS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SW CARIBBEAN
SEA...NORTH OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. 15-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
OVER HONDURAS...NICARAGUA...AND COSTA RICA. MORE SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OVER JAMAICA...HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...ALL MOVING W WITH THE TRADEWINDS. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN SEA W OF
80W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER PUERTO RICO NEAR 19N66W
MOVING W AND PRODUCING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER PUERTO
RICO AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...CENTRAL AMERICA...AND THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF SOUTH AMERICA N OF 3N. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS
FOR A COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM W CUBA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
WITH CONVECTION. EXPECT A SURFACE TROUGH TO ADVECT SHOWERS OVER
THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM THE W ATLANTIC. ALSO
EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
MORE SHOWERS AND CONVECTION.

...HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
HISPANIOLA MOVING W WITH THE TRADEWINDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS PRESENTLY SUPPRESSING THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. EXPECT WITHIN 24 HOURS FOR THE SHOWERS AND CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO REACH HISPANIOLA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A LARGE 1033 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
34N52W PRODUCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. IN THE TROPICS...A SURFACE
TROUGH IS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM 20N55W TO 11N56W MOVING
W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. OF
NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER
PUERTO RICO IS PRODUCING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 20N-
23N BETWEEN 53W-65W. ELSEWHERE...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE
CANARY ISLANDS ARE ENHANCING SHOWERS. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A
COLD FRONT TO BE OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N74W TO THE STRAITS
OF FLORIDA AT 24N80W WITH CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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