[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231748
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON DEC 23 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AS OF 1500 UTC...AN INITIAL COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR
TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA TO 25N88W TO THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR 18N93W.
A SECONDARY AND STRONGER FRONT EXTENDS FROM PENSACOLA
FLORIDA TO 22N95.5W. NORTHERLY GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LOCATED S OF
24N W OF 94W WITH SPEEDS AS HIGH AS 40 KNOTS. GALE FORCE
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY MAINLY S
OF 21N W OF 92W.

EASTERLY GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LOCATED IN THE CARIBBEAN FROM 11N
TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 76W. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW
GALE FORCE TONIGHT.

FOR BOTH AREAS PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC/TAFB HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH TRANSITIONS TO THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE
ZONE NEAR THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 06N10W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
THROUGH 03N25W TO 03N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR
0N48W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
LOCATED WITHIN 3 DEGREES N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 26W AND 37W AND
WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A 06N42W TO 03N50W LINE.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT ARE LOCATED ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE THE
HIGHEST SPEEDS...70 TO 90 KNOTS...W OF A LINE FROM 30N85W TO
19N96W. AN INITIAL COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR TALLAHASSEE
FLORIDA TO 25N88W TO THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR 18N93W.
A SECONDARY AND STRONGER FRONT EXTENDS FROM PENSACOLA FLORIDA TO
22N95.5W. THE INITIAL FRONT IS EASILY IDENTIFIABLE ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE LOCATED W OF
THE INITIAL FRONT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE SE GULF. THE
ONLY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF 27.7N86W.
FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY IN THE NEXT TWO
DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A WELL-DEFINED MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
CENTERED JUST NE OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 19N64W. A TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDS WSW FROM THE CIRCULATION CENTER TO NEAR 15N78W WITH
CYCLONIC FLOW COVERING THE BASIN EXCEPT W OF ABOUT 80W. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE ENTIRE BASIN.
THE CIRCULATION IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO NEAR 16N66W ON
WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE MOVING WEST ACROSS THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO.

...HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE MOVING WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN
PART OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...VERY
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS SUPPRESSING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERALL CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAY. HOWEVER THE PROXIMITY OF THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
MENTIONED ABOVE MAY RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
HISPANIOLA IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN ELONGATED MIDDLE/UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS LOCATED THROUGH BERMUDA
TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND INTO CENTRAL CUBA. STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT ARE LOCATED OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST.
A WELL-DEFINED MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
CENTERED NEAR 19N64W AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NE
CARIBBEAN. BROKEN LAYERED CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
LOCATED FROM 17N TO 22N BETWEEN 53W AND 63W EXCEPT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF 19N63W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
LOCATED ALONG 54W FROM 09N TO 19N. MODERATE TO STRONG WESTERLY
WINDS ALOFT ARE LOCATED FROM 08N TO 25N E OF 55W INTO AFRICA.
OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC A SHARP TROUGH AXIS ALOFT IS LOCATED
THROUGH 32N18W TO 26N45W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
CAB


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