[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 222344
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN DEC 22 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE ALABAMA COAST AT
30N88W TO 24N96W TO THE MEXICAN COAST AT 20N97W MOVING SE. THIS
FRONT WILL BE REINFORCED BY A SECONDARY COLD FRONT THAT NOW
EXTENDS FROM SW LOUISIANA AT 30N93W TO THE TEXAS COAST AT
28N97W. THIS SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL RESULT IN GALE
FORCE WINDS OF 30-40 KT BY MONDAY MORNING OVER THE SW GULF S OF
22N W OF 95W. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC/TAFB HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN
COAST NEAR 5N9W TO 4N30W TO 2N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA
NEAR 0N47W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF
THE AXIS BETWEEN 23W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE ALABAMA COAST AT
30N88W TO 24N96W TO THE MEXICAN COAST AT 20N97W MOVING SE. A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SW LOUISIANA AT 30N93W TO
THE TEXAS COAST AT 28N97W. 20-25 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE N OF THE
FRONTS. 15 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND FAIR WEATHER ARE S OF THE
LEADING FRONT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST
OF LOUISIANA N OF 27N BETWEEN 90W-93W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PRODUCING SW FLOW WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
OVER THE NE GULF. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A SINGLE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM
N FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

25-30 KT WINDS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SW CARIBBEAN
SEA...NORTH OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. 15-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
OVER HONDURAS...NICARAGUA...AND COSTA RICA. MORE SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA... PUERTO RICO...AND THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS...ALL MOVING W WITH THE TRADEWINDS. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN SEA W OF
75W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER ALL OF CENTRAL AMERICA...THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...AND THE NORTHERN PORTION OF SOUTH AMERICA N OF 3N. EXPECT
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR MORE SHOWERS TO BE OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA...AND OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND
PUERTO RICO.

...HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
HISPANIOLA MOVING W WITH THE TRADEWINDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS SUPPRESSING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
EXPECT SIMILAR SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1033 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 35N54W
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER OVER THE BAHAMAS AND W ATLANTIC. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 28N35W TO
22N37W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE TROUGH.
ANOTHER 1033 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR
36N28W. IN THE TROPICS...A SURFACE TROUGH IS E OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES FROM 18N56W TO 11N55W MOVING W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
NEAR 21N56W ENHANCING SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE...UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS ARE ENHANCING SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA

This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net