[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221723
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN DEC 22 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SW
CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTH OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...FROM 11N-13N
BETWEEN 73W-78W. THE WINDS SHOULD DECREASE BELOW GALE FORCE
WITHIN THE NEXT 6 HOURS. THE WINDS ARE DUE TO A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN A 1034 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 35N51W AND BROAD LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
NORTHERN COLOMBIA.

A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE SE LOUISIANA COAST TO 25N93.5W
TO THE MEXICAN COAST AT 23N WILL MOVE QUICKLY SE AND BE
REINFORCED BY A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR. THIS SECONDARY
SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL RESULT IN GALE FORCE WINDS OF 30 TO 40 KT
BY MONDAY MORNING OVER THE SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 95W.

FOR BOTH GALE AREAS...PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC/TAFB HIGH
SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN
COAST NEAR 06N10W TO 05N20W TO 04N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH
AMERICA NEAR 50W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS
INDICATED S OF THE AXIS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A 05N25W TO
02.5N40.5W LINE.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES
EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL MEXICO WITH THE AXIS ALONG 104W.
STRONG SW WINDS ALOFT ARE LOCATED E OF THE TROUGH COVERING THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE
SPEEDS IN THE 80 TO 100 KNOT RANGE OVER THIS AREA. THE SW WINDS
BECOME MODERATE OVER THE SE GULF. AT THE SURFACE A STRONG COLD
FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE SE LOUISIANA COAST TO 25N93.5W TO THE
MEXICAN COAST AT 23N. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LAYERED CLOUDS ARE
LOCATED ALONG AND W OF THE FRONT TO THE TEXAS AND MEXICAN
COASTLINES. THIS AREA IS VOID OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION. SKIES ARE
GENERALLY CLEAR E OF THE FRONT UNDER SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. A
WEAKENING 1006 MB LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 21N96.5W WITH A TROUGH
EXTENDING SE TO 18N94W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SW
CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTH OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. SEE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FROM EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON INDICATES STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE ENTIRE BASIN. THE
SUBSIDENCE IS MOST PRONOUNCED S OF HISPANIOLA OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. WINDS ALOFT ARE SE AND GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE
OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS PREVAIL OVER MOST OF THE ISLAND EXCEPT FOR
BROKEN LOW CLOUDS OVER THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE ARE
LOCATED ACROSS THE AREA. THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE ABOVE MENTIONED
IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA SECTION COVERS ALL OF HISPANIOLA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC A LARGE MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
IS CENTERED NEAR 28N72W WITH RIDGE AXES EXTENDING NE THROUGH
BERMUDA AND SW ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA. MOVING DOWNSTREAM A
MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH THE
AXIS ALIGNED NE TO SW FROM 32N35W TO 24N50W AND INTO THE FAR NE
CARIBBEAN. WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT ARE LOCATED N OF ABOUT 10N E OF
THE TROUGH AXIS INTO AFRICA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
STRONG SUBSIDENCE W OF ABOUT 50W. AT THE SURFACE A TROUGH IS
LOCATED ALONG 54W/55W FROM 12N TO 17N. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS
LOCATED ALONG 40W FROM 26N TO 30N.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
CAB


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