[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191152
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU DEC 19 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ IS ALONG 3N6W 4N14W 4N20W 6N30W...4N34W 3N40W. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 32W/33W FROM 4N TO 14N. A MIDDLE LEVEL
TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 20N34W.
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 30N
BETWEEN 25W AND 41W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS
COVER THE AREA THAT IS FROM 10N TO 27N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 34W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 23W AND 27W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE IN THE SAME AREA OF OVERALL CLOUDINESS FROM 10N TO 27N
BETWEEN AFRICA AND 34W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION FOR THE ITCZ...
SCATTERED STRONG FROM 8N TO 9N BETWEEN 27W AND 28W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM THE EQUATOR TO 3N BETWEEN 48W
AND 52W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG ELSEWHERE TO THE
SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 10W AND 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 55W...ACROSS THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS...INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO/THE
FLORIDA STRAITS...INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA TO
26N70W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS/THE
COAST OF CUBA NEAR 23N80W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
IS ALONG 95W/96W FROM MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
THROUGH TEXAS. MIDDLE LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW AND UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND ARE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N42W 23N60W 20N70W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE...AS DEPICTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE
GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N57W TO 27N66W 23N78W
25N87W 30N90W. A SURFACE TROUGH...THAT IS THE REMNANT OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 24 HOURS AGO...PASSES THROUGH 32N57W TO
26N67W...TO CUBA NEAR 22N79W. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH 32N58W TO 27N70W AND 26N80W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N56W 30N58W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 30N58W 26N66W 23N78W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL
IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 18/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO
THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...
MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.39 IN BERMUDA. THE 24-HOUR
RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 19/0000
UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.20 IN
BERMUDA...AND THE 24-HOUR TOTAL FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 18/1200
UTC WAS...0.31 IN BERMUDA.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE WESTERN PART OF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...TO 26N93W IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE
BEING EXPERIENCED IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/
AXPZ20 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS...KMZG...
KBBF...KBQX...KVAF...KEMK...KEHC...KGBK...KATP...KEIR...KSPR...
KMDJ...AND KDLP. ICAO STATION KMYT HAS SHOWN SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING SKIES AFTER OBSERVING LOW CLOUD CEILINGS DURING THE
LAST 8 HOURS.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

BROKEN LOW CLOUDS COVER THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. EDINBURG WAS
REPORTING VISIBILITIES OF 1 MILE OR LESS WITH FOG DURING THE
LAST FEW OBSERVATIONS. LOW CLOUD CEILING COVER THE REST OF
COASTAL PLAINS OF TEXAS...INCLUDING IN THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN
AREA. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER MOST AREAS OF SOUTHERN/COASTAL
LOUISIANA. THE SKIES ARE ONLY PARTLY CLOUDY IN SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA. VISIBILITIES OF 2 TO 3 MILES WITH FOG ARE IN
SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA. CLEAR SKIES/FAIR SKIES ARE BEING
REPORTED ELSEWHERE AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY-TO-EASTERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES
HISPANIOLA FROM THE EAST. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES HISPANIOLA FROM THE
WEST AND SOUTHWEST...ORIGINATING IN THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW TO SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AND
HIGH CLOUD CEILINGS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COASTAL SECTIONS. FEW TO
SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS IN THE NORTHWESTERN COASTAL SECTIONS.

THE GFS FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWESTERLY...AND
GRADUALLY NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH
A RIDGE. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY
WIND FLOW FROM AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA INVERTED TROUGH WILL
REACH HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS OR SO OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE WIND FLOW WILL BECOME NORTHEASTERLY WITH A CARIBBEAN
SEA RIDGE AND CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST
PERIOD. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT EASTERLY AND
NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA WITH AN ATLANTIC
OCEAN RIDGE.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA
THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 73W...WITH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
NORTHEASTERLY-TO-EASTERLY WIND FLOW.

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY-TO-SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE
AREA OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 73W...IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TOWARD THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST. THIS WIND FLOW EVENTUALLY CURVES ANTICYCLONICALLY...
TO THE EAST OF 73W...TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 16N TO 18N
BETWEEN 85W AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND IN THE GULF OF
HONDURAS. THE PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING IN AN AREA OF BROAD
SURFACE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW...AND SOME REMAINING ENERGY FROM THE
STATIONARY FRONT OF 24 HOURS AGO.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA IN
AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS.

24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
19/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WERE 0.20 IN
BERMUDA...AND 0.18 IN GUADELOUPE. TOTALS FOR THE 24-HOUR PERIOD
ENDING AT 18/1200 UTC WERE...0.31 IN BERMUDA...0.15 IN
GUADELOUPE...0.18 IN SAN JUAN IN PUERTO RICO...AND 0.09 IN ST.
THOMAS AND TRINIDAD.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N/11N BETWEEN 74W IN COLOMBIA AND
83W IN COSTA RICA...BEYOND 10N85W INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
TO THE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 76W AND 79W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED MODERATE IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 4N TO THE EAST OF 85W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8
TO 10 FEET FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 79W. EXPECT ALSO
WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET ELSEWHERE
TO THE SOUTH OF 16N BETWEEN 70W AND 82W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

NORTHEASTERLY-TO-EASTERLY MIDDLE LEVEL WIND FLOW IS BETWEEN THE
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE 20N34W ATLANTIC
OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...
AND MIDDLE LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW/UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW THAT ARE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N42W 23N60W 20N70W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 33N13W TO 32N28W 31N43W 30N52W...
AND 26N61W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND
SEA HEIGHTS 10 TO 13 FEET FROM 18N TO 25N TO THE EAST OF 43W.
EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET
ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF THE LINE 30N35W 25N55W 22N65W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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