[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 190604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU DEC 19 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ IS ALONG 4N13W 5N25W 7N30W 7N34W 2N43W 1N50W AT THE
COAST OF BRAZIL. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 20N29W 13N31W 6N32W.
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 19N33W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
10N TO 30N BETWEEN 25W AND 42W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS COVER THE AREA THAT IS FROM 10N TO 24N BETWEEN AFRICA AND
32W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVER
IS FROM 13N TO 20N BETWEEN 23W AND 30W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE IN THE SAME AREA OF OVERALL CLOUDINESS FROM 10N TO 24N
BETWEEN AFRICA AND 32W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION FOR THE ITCZ...
ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN
10W AND 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 55W...ACROSS THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS...INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO/THE
FLORIDA STRAITS...INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA TO
27N73W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS/THE
COAST OF CUBA NEAR 23N81W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
NORTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS DEPICTED
IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE LINE THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N60W TO 25N71W 24N80W 26N89W 30N93W TO 23N80W.
A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS OF THE STATIONARY FRONT FROM 24 HOURS
AGO. THE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N60W TO 26N70W TO THE COAST OF
CUBA NEAR 22N78W. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA
TO 30N69W AND 28N74W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 30 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N58W 29N62W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
29N62W 26N70W 22N80W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR
THE PERIOD ENDING AT 18/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...
WAS 0.39 IN BERMUDA. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR
THE PERIOD ENDING AT 19/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01
KNHC...WAS 0.20 IN BERMUDA...AND THE 24-HOUR TOTAL FOR THE
PERIOD ENDING AT 18/1200 UTC WAS...0.31 IN BERMUDA.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE WESTERN PART OF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...TO 26N94W IN THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BEING EXPERIENCED IN THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER MANY OF THE PLATFORM SITES.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COASTAL
PLAINS. CLEAR SKIES/FAIR SKIES ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE AT
OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET.

LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING OBSERVED AT
THE COASTAL PLAINS STATIONS OF MEXICO FROM THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO TAMPICO MEXICO. RAIN HAS BEEN
REPORTED AT VILLAHERMOSA MEXICO. SIMILAR CLOUDS APPEAR TO BE IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF
24N TO THE WEST OF 90W.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY-TO-EASTERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES
HISPANIOLA FROM THE EAST. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES HISPANIOLA FROM THE
WEST AND SOUTHWEST...ORIGINATING IN THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SCATTERED TO LOW CLOUDS AND HIGH
CLOUD CEILINGS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COASTAL SECTIONS. SCATTERED
LOW CLOUDS AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IN THE NORTHWESTERN
COASTAL SECTIONS.

THE GFS FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWESTERLY...
WESTERLY...AND GRADUALLY NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA WITH A RIDGE. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS
THAT HISPANIOLA WILL BE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF AN ATLANTIC
OCEAN NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED RIDGE FOR THE FIRST 12
HOURS OR SO OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE WIND FLOW WILL BECOME
NORTHEASTERLY WITH A CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. THE GFS FORECAST FOR
700 MB SHOWS THAT EASTERLY AND NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL
CROSS HISPANIOLA WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA
THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 73W...WITH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
NORTHEASTERLY-TO-EASTERLY WIND FLOW.

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY-TO-SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE
AREA OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 73W...IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TOWARD THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST. THIS WIND FLOW EVENTUALLY CURVES ANTICYCLONICALLY...
TO THE EAST OF 73W...TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 16N TO 19N
BETWEEN 85W AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE PRECIPITATION IS
OCCURRING IN AN AREA OF BROAD SURFACE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW... AND
SOME REMAINING ENERGY FROM THE STATIONARY FRONT OF 24 HOURS AGO.

24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
19/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WERE 0.20 IN
BERMUDA...AND 0.18 IN GUADELOUPE. TOTALS FOR THE 24-HOUR PERIOD
ENDING AT 18/1200 UTC WERE...0.31 IN BERMUDA...0.15 IN
GUADELOUPE...0.18 IN SAN JUAN IN PUERTO RICO...AND 0.09 IN ST.
THOMAS AND TRINIDAD.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N75W 8N80W BEYOND 8N85W...INTO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 76W AND 78W...IN THE
GULF OF URABA OF COLOMBIA AND ALONG THE PANAMA COAST.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 14N TO THE
WEST OF 75W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8
TO 11 FEET FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W. TO THE EAST OF
82W. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10
FEET ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 67W AND 82W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
AREA THAT GENERALLY IS TO THE NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W.
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY-TO-SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF THE AREA OF
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...
AS DEPICTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...IS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N64W TO 28N70W TO 23N80W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 33N12W TO A 1031 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N30W...TO 30N40W 28N53W..AND 26N65W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 25N19W TO A 17N29W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 14N35W AND 12N40W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 16N TO 19N BETWEEN 28W
AND 31W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS DEPICTED IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM THE LINE
10N60W 10N50W 12N40W 15N30W 16N25W TO 27N/28N BETWEEN AFRICA AND
55W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS
TO 11 FEET FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 72W AND 79W. EXPECT ALSO
WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET ELSEWHERE TO
THE SOUTH OF 17N BETWEEN 70W AND 82W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

NORTHEASTERLY-TO-EASTERLY MIDDLE LEVEL WIND FLOW IS BETWEEN THE
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE 19N33W ATLANTIC
OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...
AND THE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW THAT IS WITHIN 300
NM TO THE WEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N42W 26N56W
20N70W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM MOROCCO NEAR 33N6W...ACROSS THE
MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO...TO A 1034 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS
NEAR 34N30W TO 33N40W 32N48W 29N55W AND 27N62W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND
SEA HEIGHTS 10 TO 14 FEET FROM 18N TO 25N TO THE EAST OF 43W.
THE 24-HOUR FORECAST CONSISTS OF A COLD FRONT 31N54W 27N65W.
WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET TO THE NORTH OF
THE FRONT. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO
10 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF THE LINE 30N35W 26N60W 20N66W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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