[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 181159
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED DEC 18 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ PASSES THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL LIBERIA NEAR 4N8W
TO 6N15W 3N30W AND 1N40W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG IN CLUSTERS
BETWEEN 7W AND 35W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE SOUTH OF 5N BETWEEN
35W AND THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 60W...ACROSS THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS...INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO/THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N76W IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS/THE COAST OF CUBA
NEAR 23N81W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS DEPICTED
IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N64W TO 28N70W TO 23N80W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
NORTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS THE GULF OF MEXICO. A
STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N60W TO 28N70W...ACROSS CAT
ISLAND AND THE EXUMA CAYS IN THE BAHAMAS...JUST TO THE SOUTH OF
ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...ACROSS CUBA NEAR 22N80W...CURVING
TO 20N85W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO
COASTAL HONDURAS ALONG 86W/87W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
WITHIN 15 NM TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 28N70W BEYOND 32N63W.
BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N62W 26N70W...AND FROM 20N TO 26N BETWEEN 66W AND 76W.
IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE
FROM 16N TO 20N TO THE WEST OF 84W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE
NORTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THE 24-HOUR
RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 18/0000
UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.39 IN
BERMUDA. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD
ENDING AT 17/1200 UTC WAS...1.19 IN BERMUDA.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS IN SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...TO 26N96W IN THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BEING EXPERIENCED IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS...KBQX...
KVAF...AND KDLP. CLEAR SKIES/FAIR SKIES ARE BEING REPORTED
ELSEWHERE AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

THE VISIBILITIES ARE 1 MILE OR LESS WITH FOG IN TEXAS AT...
WESLACO AND MCALLEN IN THE DEEP SOUTH...AT THE KINGSVILLE NAVAL
AIR STATION...AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN CORPUS CHRISTI...FROM
PORT LAVACA TO THE HOUSTON HOBBY AIRPORT AND EVERYWHERE IN
BETWEEN THERE...TO SUGARLAND...TOMBALL...AND CONROE...AND IN THE
BEAUMONT-PORT ARTHUR AREA. THE VISIBILITIES OF 1 MILE OR LESS
WITH FOG CONTINUE INTO COASTAL LOUISIANA...THE VISIBILITY IS 2
MILES OR LESS WITH FOG AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN NEW ORLEANS.
A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS BEING REPORTED AT THE KEY WEST
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. CLEAR SKIES/FAIR SKIES ARE BEING REPORTED
ELSEWHERE AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET.

LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING OBSERVED AT
THE COASTAL PLAINS STATIONS OF MEXICO FROM THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO TAMPICO MEXICO. RAIN HAS BEEN
REPORTED AT VILLAHERMOSA MEXICO. SIMILAR CLOUDS APPEAR TO BE IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF
24N TO THE WEST OF 90W.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL EASTERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES HISPANIOLA FROM THE
EAST. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY WIND
FLOW CROSSES HISPANIOLA FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST...
ORIGINATING IN THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA.

FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW TO SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE
REPORTED ACROSS THE AREA.

THE GFS FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWESTERLY...
WESTERLY...AND GRADUALLY NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA WITH A RIDGE. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS
THAT HISPANIOLA WILL BE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF AN ATLANTIC
OCEAN NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED RIDGE. THE WIND FLOW WILL
VARY FROM SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY TO EASTERLY...EVEN TO NORTH-
EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE FIRST 30
HOURS OR SO OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW
EVENTUALLY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE TIME
PERIOD...WITH AN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. THE
GFS FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY AND EASTERLY
WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD... WITH A CARIBBEAN SEA INVERTED TROUGH. THE
WIND FLOW WILL BE FROM THE NORTHEAST-TO-EAST DURING THE REST OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO
THE EAST OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...WITH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW.

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM COLOMBIA TOWARD
JAMAICA...CURVING ANTICYCLONICALLY AFTER REACHING JAMAICA. THAT
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW CONTINUES TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER
OF THE AREA.

OTHER UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES
FROM COLOMBIA...ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA...REACHING THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. THE WIND FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER CROSSING
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS
WIND FLOW BECOMES CAUGHT UP IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW THAT
IS MOVING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN.

24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
18/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WERE 0.39 IN
BERMUDA...AND 0.06 IN GUADELOUPE. TOTALS FOR THE 24-HOUR PERIOD
ENDING AT 17/1200 UTC WERE...1.19 IN BERMUDA...0.17 IN
GUADELOUPE...0.11 IN ST. THOMAS...AND 0.03 IN SAN JUAN IN PUERTO
RICO.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N75W 7N79W BEYOND 8N85W...INTO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 5N TO 12N BETWEEN 76W AND
87W...IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF COLOMBIA...AND TO THE SOUTH
OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8
TO 11 FEET FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W. TO THE EAST OF
82W. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10
FEET ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 67W AND 82W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
AREA THAT GENERALLY IS TO THE NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W.
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY-TO-SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF THE AREA OF
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...
AS DEPICTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...IS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N64W TO 28N70W TO 23N80W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 33N12W TO A 1031 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N30W...TO 30N40W 28N53W..AND 26N65W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 25N19W TO A 17N29W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 14N35W AND 12N40W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 16N TO 19N BETWEEN 28W
AND 31W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS DEPICTED IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM THE LINE
10N60W 10N50W 12N40W 15N30W 16N25W TO 27N/28N BETWEEN AFRICA AND
55W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8
TO 11 FEET FROM 11N TO 17N TO THE EAST OF 82W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
AREA THAT GENERALLY IS TO THE NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS AND 73W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
COVERS THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N65W 27N72W 22N78W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 35N27W TO 32N37W 30N48W 28N59W AND 25N64W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A MOROCCO
33N4W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO A 20N26W ATLANTIC OCEAN
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION...TO 16N30W 13N35W. A SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES
FROM 13N35W TO 14N46W. AN INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 54W/55W FROM
14N TO 22N. A SURGE IN THE WIND FIELD/AN AIRMASS CHANGE IS NOTED
ALONG 20N22W 15N25W 13N39W 22N49W...AS DEPICTED IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 27W
AND 30W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND
SEA HEIGHTS 10 TO 13 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 24N TO THE EAST OF
60W. EXPECT WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET
ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF THE LINE 29N35W 25N55W 22N68W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT

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