[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 180605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED DEC 18 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS INLAND IN AFRICA. THE ITCZ PASSES THROUGH
THE COASTAL BORDER AREAS SIERRA LEONE AND LIBERIA NEAR 7N11W TO
7N14W...4N20W 2N30W 1N35W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG TO THE SOUTH
OF 10N TO THE EAST OF 37W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE SOUTH OF 8N
BETWEEN 37W AND 50W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 50W AND
60W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 60W...ACROSS THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS...INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO/THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 33N76W IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS/SOUTHEASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO NEAR 24N83W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE...AS DEPICTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE
GULF OF MEXICO. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY-TO-
WESTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS THE GULF OF MEXICO. A STATIONARY FRONT
PASSES THROUGH 32N61W TO 28N70W...ACROSS CAT ISLAND AND THE
EXUMA CAYS IN THE BAHAMAS...JUST TO THE SOUTH OF ANDROS ISLAND
IN THE BAHAMAS...ACROSS CUBA NEAR 22N80W...CURVING TO 20N86W IN
THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO COASTAL
HONDURAS ALONG 86W/87W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N61W 27N70W 22N78W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO THE WEST OF 84W IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF JAMAICA.
THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
18/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.39 IN
BERMUDA. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD
ENDING AT 17/1200 UTC WAS...1.19 IN BERMUDA.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS IN SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...TO 22N96W IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BEING EXPERIENCED IN THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS...KVAF...
KEMK...KEMK...KGUL...KHQI...AND KMDJ. THE SKY HAS BEEN CLEARING
DURING THE LAST HOUR AT THE ICAO STATION KATP. CLEAR SKIES/FAIR
SKIES ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

THE VISIBILITIES WITH FOG ARE 1 MILE OR LESS IN TEXAS AT...
FALFURRIAS...PALACIOS...ANGLETON/LAKE JACKSON...TO THE SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA...AND IN THE BEAUMONT-
PORT ARTHUR AREA...INTO LAKE CHARLES AND PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
COASTAL LOUISIANA...AND IN PERRY FLORIDA. CLEAR SKIES/FAIR SKIES
ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES
HISPANIOLA FROM THE EAST. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES
WESTERN SECTIONS OF HISPANIOLA...ORIGINATING IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...MIDDLE LEVEL AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED IN SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS. LOW LEVEL
CLOUD CEILINGS IN THE NORTHWESTERN PART. FEW TO SCATTERED
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE. COMPARATIVELY
DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS DEPICTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...
COVERS HISPANIOLA.

THE GFS FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWESTERLY...
WESTERLY...AND GRADUALLY NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA WITH A RIDGE. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS
THAT SOUTHEASTERLY AND SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA
FOR MOST OF THE FIRST 24 TO 30 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY NORTHERLY
WIND FLOW TOWARD THE END OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS
FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS
HISPANIOLA DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO
THE EAST OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...WITH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW.

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM COLOMBIA TOWARD
JAMAICA...CURVING ANTICYCLONICALLY AFTER REACHING JAMAICA. THAT
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW CONTINUES TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER
OF THE AREA.

OTHER UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES
FROM COLOMBIA...ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA...REACHING THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. THE WIND FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER CROSSING
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS
WIND FLOW BECOMES CAUGHT UP IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW THAT
IS MOVING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN.

24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
18/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WERE 0.39 IN
BERMUDA...AND 0.06 IN GUADELOUPE. TOTALS FOR THE 24-HOUR PERIOD
ENDING AT 17/1200 UTC WERE...1.19 IN BERMUDA...0.17 IN
GUADELOUPE...0.11 IN ST. THOMAS...AND 0.03 IN SAN JUAN IN PUERTO
RICO.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N75W 7N79W BEYOND 9N85W...INTO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 6N TO 11N BETWEEN 77W AND
87W... IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND IN
THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF COLOMBIA...AND TO THE
SOUTH OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
AREA THAT GENERALLY IS TO THE NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W.
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY-TO-SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF THE AREA OF
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...
AS DEPICTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...IS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N64W...TO 28N70W...AND TO 23N80W AT
THE COAST OF CUBA.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 34N10W TO A 1031 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N29W...TO 32N40W 30N49W..AND 26N65W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 26N17W TO A 17N29W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 13N32W AND 12N40W. RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE FROM 13N TO 20N BETWEEN THE WESTERN PART OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND 31W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE...AS DEPICTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 13N TO 26N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 45W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT

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