[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141754
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT DEC 14 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A GALE WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
BEGINNING 15/0600 UTC FOR NORTHERLY WINDS OF 35 KT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ANALYZED ACROSS THE NW
GULF WATERS. THE WINDS IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ARE REMAINING
IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 30 KT BEFORE INCREASING LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR
07N12W TO 05N18W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 05N18W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 47W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 07N BETWEEN 09W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE GULF WITH MOST MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINING NORTH OF 25N. THIS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
ADVECT NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER TEXAS AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
REGION. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL LOUISIANA COAST NEAR 30N92W SW TO THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
TEXAS COAST NEAR BROWNSVILLE AND INLAND ACROSS NE MEXICO. LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH THE FAVORABLE MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
EAST OF THE COLD FRONT FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN 84W-90W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE ALSO OCCURRING WITHIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT N
OF 26N W OF 91W. AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY AND INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC BY LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD EASTWARD
IN WAKE OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE BASIN. DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 28
HOURS THE STRONG WINDS ARE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF INITIALLY WITH THE AREA MIGRATING SOUTHWARD INTO
THE SW GULF LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THEREAFTER...THE EXISTING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX SOMEWHAT
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE COASTAL GULF PLAINS WITH
NE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT PERSISTING EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MOSTLY NORTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY FLOW DOMINATES ALOFT OVER THE
CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING A
VERY DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS PROVIDING OVERALL TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE. THE ONLY FEATURE OF NOTE IS THE CLOSE
PROXIMITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ANALYZED FROM NORTHERN
COLOMBIA ACROSS PANAMA AND SOUTHERN COSTA RICA INTO THE EAST
PACIFIC OCEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING S OF
12N. OTHERWISE...PASSING LOW-TOPPED ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE BASIN-WIDE WITHIN STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW IN THE RANGE
OF 20 TO 30 KT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER HISPANIOLA PROVIDING FOR OVERALL DRY AND STABLE
CONDITIONS. AT THE SURFACE...EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS PREVAIL AND
ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE TRADE WIND FLOW...PASSING LOW-TOPPED ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN A POSSIBILITY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE...
CONTINUED FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH
AXIS ALONG 65W AND A BASE NEAR 22N. THIS TROUGHING ALOFT
SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA
NEAR 32N44W THAT MEANDERS SW TO 27N56W AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATES
TO 24N64W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE FRONT. TO THE WEST ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC...EAST-
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW PERSISTS GENERALLY IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20
KT WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING N OF 27N W OF 66W...AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N69W. FINALLY...ANOTHER SURFACE
RIDGE PROVIDES INFLUENCE FOR THE EASTERN ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1031
MB HIGH CENTERED SOUTH OF THE AZORES NEAR 32N26W. EARLIER
MORNING SCATTEROMETER PASSES SHOWED A LARGE AREA OF NE TO E
WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 30 KT...WITH THE STRONG WINDS
OCCURRING WITHIN 300 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 20N24W TO
12N55W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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