[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 141150
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT DEC 14 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

...GALE WARNING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE 24-HOUR FORECAST CONSISTS OF A COLD FRONT FROM 30N84W TO
19N95W. EXPECT NORTHWEST-TO-NORTH GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SEA
HEIGHTS 9 TO 11 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 24N TO THE WEST OF 95W.
EXPECT ALSO NORTH WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET
ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE COLD FRONT. PLEASE READ THE
HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA
NEAR 10N14W CURVING TO 6N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N18W TO
4N20W 2N30W AND 1N37W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 1N TO 2N BETWEEN 3W AND 6W...
AND TO THE SOUTH OF 7N BETWEEN 10W AND 38W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N TO THE WEST OF 37W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS MISSOURI
AND ARKANSAS. THE PART OF THE GULF OF MEXICO THAT IS TO THE
NORTH OF 25N TO THE WEST OF 88W IS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A
FRONTAL SYSTEM. A WARM FRONT CUTS THROUGH LOUISIANA FROM THE
NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST. A COLD FRONT CUTS THROUGH THE UPPER
TEXAS GULF COAST...INTO THE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS NEAR 28N96W...
INTO THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE HAS SPREAD
ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. SOME OF IT HAS BEEN THINNING
OUT WITH TIME. LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE
SOUTH OF 25N TO THE EAST OF 90W.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE AT ICAO STATIONS KBBF AND KBQX ALONG THE
TEXAS GULF COAST. THE OTHER TEXAS COASTAL ICAO STATIONS ARE
REPORTING CLEARING SKIES. ICAO STATIONS KEMK...KGBK...KVBS ARE
REPORTING LOW CLOUD CEILINGS. CLEARING SKIES ARE BEING REPORTED
AT THE OTHER ICAO STATIONS THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE
WEST OF 90W. ICAO STATION KATP IS REPORTING SCATTERED LOW
CLOUDS...A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING...AND A VISIBILITY OF 3
MILES OR LESS WITH FOG. LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS
ARE AT KMYT...KIPN...AND KMDJ. CLEARING SKIES/FAIR SKIES ARE
BEING REPORTED AT THE ICAO STATIONS THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
BETWEEN 92W AND 95W.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES OF 3 MILES OR LESS WITH FOG
COVER THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE REST
OF THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS FROM THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST
NORTHWARD. VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS 1 MILE OR LESS WITH FOG COVER
TEXAS FROM THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST TO THE HOUSTON
METROPOLITAN AREA. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS AND LIGHT RAIN
COVER SOUTHERN COASTAL LOUISIANA...INCLUDING AROUND LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN...COASTAL MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA...AND FLORIDA TO
THE WEST OF PERRY. MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER FLORIDA
FROM BROOKSVILLE TO THE TAMPA METROPOLITAN AREA. CLEAR SKIES/
FAIR SKIES ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE AT OR LOWER THAN 12000
FEET.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW APPROACHES
THE EASTERN PARTS OF HISPANIOLA. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY-TO-
WESTERLY WIND FLOW APPROACHES HISPANIOLA FROM THE NORTHWEST
AND WEST.

A SURFACE TROUGH CUTS THROUGH CENTRAL SECTIONS OF HISPANIOLA...
ALONG 21N71W 19N72W 15N74W. FEW TO SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE
BEING REPORTED ACROSS HISPANIOLA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
AROUND THE AREA FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN THE MONA PASSAGE AND THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE.

THE GFS FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST
ORIENTED TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. A NORTH-TO-SOUTH ORIENTED RIDGE WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS HISPANIOLA BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS
FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL COVER
HISPANIOLA FOR MUCH OF THE FIRST 24 HOURS. EASTERLY-TO-
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND...THAT IS RELATED TO AN ATLANTIC OCEAN
RIDGE...WILL COVER THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE TIME PERIOD. THE
GFS FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT EASTERLY-TO-SOUTHEASTERLY
WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA...DUE TO AN ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST-TO-
WEST RIDGE.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY-TO-SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW
SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM EAST TO WEST.

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA
TO THE SOUTH OF 18N BETWEEN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA AND BEYOND 60W.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES THROUGH
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.
IT REACHES 80W AND CURVES TOWARD CENTRAL AMERICA.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 21N BETWEEN 58W
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND 80W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN AREAS OF
BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS.

24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
13/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WERE 0.69 IN ST.
THOMAS...0.42 IN NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS...0.20 IN MERIDA IN
MEXICO...0.17 IN FREEPORT IN THE BAHAMAS...0.12 IN TRINIDAD AND
0.12 IN MONTEGO BAY IN JAMAICA...AND 0.10 IN GUADELOUPE.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N/10N BETWEEN 73W IN COLOMBIA AND
83W COSTA RICA...AND THEN BEYOND 9N86W INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG ALONG THE
COAST OF PANAMA WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 9N BETWEEN 77W AND 78W.
ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF
14N IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN 75W
AND THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8
TO 11 FEET FROM 11N TO 17N TO THE EAST OF 80W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N47W TO 28N55W AND 27N60W. MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT
GENERALLY IS TO THE NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN 20W AND 64W. MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 64W...MERGING WITH THE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW ALONG 64W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 23N TO 25N BETWEEN 60W AND 68W. BROKEN
MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N38W
25N53W 20N60W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 24N62W 20N63W. THIS TROUGH SHOWED UP
IN THE LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR
THE TROUGH.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 12N37W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 9N TO 15N
BETWEEN 34W AND 42W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 32N24W...TO 28N38W AND 25N52W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N11W ALONG
THE COAST OF MOROCCO...TO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE WESTERN
SAHARA...TO 16N18W TO 5N22W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND
SEA HEIGHTS 9 TO 12 FEET TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE 23N35W
21N50W 18N61W. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA
HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE
26N35W 22N50W 20N60W. A SECOND AREA OF INTEREST CONSISTS OF THE
24-HOUR FORECAST OF SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND
SEA HEIGHTS 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 30N TO THE WEST OF 75W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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