[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021805
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON DEC 02 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE WEST AFRICAN COAST NEAR
06N11W TO 06N19W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 06N19W TO 04N33W 06N47W 05N52W. A CLUSTER OF
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION AND TSTMS IS FROM 05N-08N E
OF 15W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-08N BETWEEN
18W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE GULF BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1016 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 24N91W. A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE E PACIFIC CENTERED NEAR
16N101W EXTENDS INTO THE GULF SUPPORTING THE SURFACE RIDGE. THE
ANTICYCLONE IS PROVIDING W-NW WIND FLOW ALOFT THAT IS ADVECTING
MOISTURE FROM THE E PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH INTO THE NORTH-
CENTRAL GULF TO SUPPORT BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS N OF 27N E OF 93W. HOWEVER...N OF 29N E OF 89W AS WELL
AS S OF 27N DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER. A WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE BASIN SUPPORTS ANTICYCLONIC WIND IN
THE RANGE OF 5-10 KT. WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT NE TOWARDS THE WESTERN-
CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST WHERE IT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE. FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THROUGHOUT WED
MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES SE TO CENTRAL
FLORIDA. SOUTH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THE EASTERN PERIPHERY
OF A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER
THE E PACIFIC IS GENERATING DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT TO SUPPORT
RAINSHOWERS WITHIN 100 NM OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE AND
HONDURAS COASTLINES. FARTHER EAST...THE AXIS OF AN ELONGATED
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE ATLC NEAR 22N66W...SW ACROSS
HISPANIOLA AND NICARAGUA TO THE E PACIFIC NEAR 07N92W. THIS
TROUGH ALOFT SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 25N66W TO
19N70W TO 15N74W WHICH IS ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SOUTHERN HAITI AND HISPANIOLA NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN ADJACENT WATERS. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS E OF
68W...INCLUDING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. OTHERWISE...DRY AIR
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE MIDDLE LEVELS SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER ACROSS
THE REMAINDER BASIN. A FAIRLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
MAINTAIN ITSELF THROUGH WED WITH TRADE WINDS REMAINING GENERALLY
IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE.

...HISPANIOLA...
THE AXIS OF AN ELONGATED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
ATLC NEAR 22N66W...SW ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND NICARAGUA TO THE E
PACIFIC NEAR 07N92W. THIS TROUGH ALOFT SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM 25N66W TO 19N70W TO 15N74W WHICH IS ENHANCING
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SOUTHERN HAITI AND
HISPANIOLA NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN ADJACENT WATERS. THE SURFACE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT W-NW UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING WHEN
IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE. ISOLATED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SURFACE TROUGH COULD AMPLIFY OVER HAITI AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES DUE TO SURFACE HEATING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES SE
TO THE SW N ATLC SUPPORTS A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT AT 02/1500 UTC
IS ANALYZED AS A COLD FRONT FROM 30N78W SW TO EASTERN CENTRAL
FLORIDA ADJACENT WATERS NEAR 28N80W. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N76W TO 27N77W TO 25N79W. NUMEROUS
MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE N OF 27N BETWEEN 68W-
78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED TO THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM ARE
ELSEWHERE N OF 25N W OF 68W...INCLUDING THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND
CENTRAL FLORIDA. FARTHER EAST...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
ALONG WITH UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ARE SUPPORTING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 24N BETWEEN 50W-63W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM 29N44W TO 25N41W WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS WITHIN 50 NM EITHER SIDE OF ITS AXIS. OTHERWISE...IN THE
EASTERN ATLC A 1004 MB LOW N OF THE AREA EXTENDS A SURFACE
TROUGH FROM 30N20W TO 26N18W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND
TSTMS ARE FROM 26N-29N BETWEEN 15W-17W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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