[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021140
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON DEC 2 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N11W
TO 06N22W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
06N22W TO SOUTH AMERICAN COAST NEAR 04N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 03N-07N BETWEEN 23W-44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO NEAR
19N100W IS SUPPORTING RELATIVELY DRY N-NW FLOW ALOFT. CLOUDINESS
AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TO THE NORTH OVER THE COASTAL
PLAIN WHILE A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S. TO EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO. WEAK HIGH PRES IS CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF NEAR 24N93W. FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUE...WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS NEAR THE
HIGH CENTER WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT EASTWARD TOWARD FLORIDA.
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND TUE ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF THEN SPREAD EASTWARD WED AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
BEGINS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL U.S. PLAINS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET AND TRANQUIL
UNDER MOSTLY DRY AND STABLE AIR ASSOCIATED WITH W-NW FLOW ALOFT.
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES A BIT MORE W-SW AND DIFFLUENT OVER
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE LOCATED IN THE GULF
OF HONDURAS WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS STRONGEST. A
FAIRLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN ITSELF THROUGH WED
WITH TRADE WINDS REMAINING GENERALLY IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE.

...HISPANIOLA...
RELATIVELY LIGHT TRADE WINDS AND UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE ARE
MAINTAINING FAIR WEATHER OVER HISPANIOLA. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED
THROUGH TUE. SAT IMAGERY SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS EAST OF THE MONA
PASSAGE WHICH ARE DRIFTING WESTWARD AND DISSIPATING...ASSOCIATED
WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE E OF A SHORT WAVE FROM 27N65W TO 19N70W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALONG
65W-67W EXTENDING TO NEAR 20N SUPPORTING SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED
FROM 30N65W TO 18N68W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE
TROUGH AXIS ALONG WITH SOME DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH IS GENERATING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDS AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS N OF 23N BETWEEN 50W-65W. WEAK TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHWARD
FROM 1014 MB LOW NEAR 38N78W MOVING OFF SOUTH CAROLINA. COASTAL
RADARS SHOW FEW SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN EXTENSIVE UPPER CLOUDINESS.
A DEEP LAYER LOW CENTERED NEAR 32N25W SUPPORTS A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE. PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERS WILL MERGE N OF THE
FORECAST AREA NEAR 34N25W LATER TODAY. WIDELY SCATTERED SHALLOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING N OF 28N BETWEEN 16W-26W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MUNDELL


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