[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 012322
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN DEC 01 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR
10N15W TO 08N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 08N20W TO 06N28W TO 05N46W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-07N BETWEEN 22W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED
OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO NEAR 19N100W THAT IS PROVIDING MUCH OF THE
GULF BASIN WITH RELATIVELY DRY NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
THIS EVENING. OVERALL CLOUDINESS AND MOISTURE REMAINS TO THE
NORTH OVER THE COASTAL GULF PLAINS AS THE STABLE CONDITIONS
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM ACROSS
THE SE CONUS SW TO EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 22N98W. THE RIDGE IS
ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER ALABAMA. A COUPLE OF
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH REMAIN EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RIDGING ACROSS
THE EASTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF WATERS WITH ONLY A FEW
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING WITHIN THEIR VICINITY.
OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN FAIR WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS CIRCULATION AROUND THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL
GULF WATERS BY MONDAY. THEREAFTER INTO TUESDAY...SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW WILL RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF AND
SPREAD EASTWARD INTO WEDNESDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL U.S. PLAINS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET
AND TRANQUIL AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IMAGERY INDICATES MOSTLY DRY
AND STABLE AIR ALOFT WITHIN NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW. THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES A BIT MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN THAT SUPPORTS A SMALL AMOUNT OF MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. THIS DIFFLUENCE ALONG WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 15N63W TO 21N67W IS PROVIDING FOCUS
FOR INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS E OF 68W THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE ONLY OTHER AREA EXPERIENCING ISOLATED
SHOWERS IS ALONG THE FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN WHERE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS STRONGEST FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS
REGION SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE WESTERN COAST OF PANAMA.
LOOKING AHEAD...A FAIRLY RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN
ITSELF THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH TRADES REMAINING GENERALLY IN THE
10 TO 15 KT RANGE.

...HISPANIOLA...
RELATIVELY LIGHT TRADE WINDS AND UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE ARE
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER OVER HISPANIOLA THIS EVENING. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS EAST OF THE MONA PASSAGE
WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY WESTWARD OVERNIGHT. THESE
SHOWERS ARE LARGELY ASSOCIATED WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE EAST OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS NOTED ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY FROM 22N67W TO 20N71W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 67W TO
A BASE NEAR 20N67W. THIS TROUGHING SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT
ANALYZED FROM 32N53W TO 31N60W WHERE IT BECOMES A DISSIPATING
STATIONARY FRONT SW TO 27N68W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH MARGINAL MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
GENERATING A BROAD AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS FROM 19N-32N BETWEEN 53W-70W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO
NOTED FARTHER WEST-NORTHWEST IN THE VICINITY OF ANOTHER
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING ALONG THE COAST FROM THE CAROLINAS
SOUTHWEST TO THE NE FLORIDA COAST AND ALONG 81W TO 28N. THE
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE MOSTLY CONFINED N OF 28N W OF 70W.
OTHERWISE...OVER THE EASTERN ATLC A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 31N26W THAT SUPPORTS A COMPLEX AREA OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE ANCHORED BY A 1003 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 33N26W AND A
1002 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 29N28W. DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS THESE
AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MERGE IN THE VICINITY OF 34N25W AND
CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY TO THE NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING PRIMARILY N OF 28N
BETWEEN 16W-26W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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