[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011806
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN DEC 01 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE WEST AFRICAN COAST NEAR
08N13W TO 06N19W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 06N19W TO 05N32W TO 05N45W. A CLUSTER OF
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION AND TSTMS IS FROM 03N-05N
BETWEEN 26W-28W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM
02N-07N BETWEEN 21W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CAROLINAS SW TO THE WESTERN
GULF ANCHORED BY SEVERAL HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS N OF THE AREA OF
DISCUSSION. A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER CENTRAL-SOUTHERN MEXICO SUPPORTS THE
SURFACE RIDGE AND PROVIDES W-NW FLOW ALOFT AS WELL AS STRONG MID-
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GULF. THE
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION ALOFT IS ADVECTING MOISTURE TO THE
NORTHERN GULF FROM THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THE E PACIFIC TO
SUPPORT BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS
N OF 28N. OVER THE EASTERN GULF...THERE IS A WEAKNESS IN THE
RIDGE WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 28N86W TO
22N85W...HOWEVER THERE IS NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. A
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT NE WINDS IN THE
RANGE OF 5-10 KT. SURFACE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT MONDAY NIGHT WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE
BASIN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
IN THE NW AND SW CARIBBEAN...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE COASTLINE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER COASTAL
WATERS OF HONDURAS...BELIZE...YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SOUTHERN
NICARAGUA. A MIDDLE-LEVEL TROUGH WITH BASE OVER NORTHERN
VENEZUELA COVERS THE CENTRAL-EASTERN CARIBBEAN TO SUPPORT A
SURFACE TROUGH FROM 20N67W IN THE ATLC...SE ACROSS PUERTO RICO
TO 15N63W. UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN IS
SUPPORTING SHOWERS ACROSS PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG
WITH UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS ENHANCING SHOWERS OVER THE SE
CARIBBEAN S OF 13N E OF 64W. OTHERWISE...SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS
AND MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE W-NW FLOW ALOFT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOW DRY AIR SUBSIDING ACROSS THE REMAINDER BASIN WHICH IS
SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
PUERTO RICO AND MAY EXTEND TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THROUGHOUT
MONDAY MORNING. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE BASIN WILL
SUPPORT WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 5-10 KT WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...
RELATIVELY LIGHT TRADE WINDS AND MIDDLE-LEVEL DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE
ARE FAVORING FAIR WEATHER OVER HISPANIOLA. RADAR AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND ADJACENT
WATERS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH. THESE SHOWERS ARE
DRIFTING WEST AND MAY IMPACT THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TONIGHT
THROUGHOUT EARLY MONDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS BEING ANALYZED ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF
FLORIDA AND ADJACENT WATERS FROM 31N80W TO 27N80W TO 25N80W.
RADAR IMAGERY SHOW RAINSHOWER ACTIVITY OFFSHORE N OF 26N W OF
79W. FURTHER EAST...A SHEAR LINE EXTENDS FROM 30N61W TO 28N68W
ENHANCING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 27N BETWEEN 59W-67W. A
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH EXTENDS FROM NEAR 30N TO A
BASE OVER NORTHERN VENEZUELA AND SUPPORT A SURFACE TROUGH FROM
20N67W IN THE ATLC...SE ACROSS PUERTO RICO TO 15N63W. THIS
TROUGHINESS IS SUPPORTING SHOWERS N OF 19N BETWEEN 60W-68W. A
REGION OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH UPPER-LEVEL
DIVERGENCE E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS ENHANCING SHOWERS FROM
09N-13N BETWEEN 54W-62W. OTHERWISE...A 1002 MB LOW IS LOCATED
NEAR 29N28W EXTENDING A SURFACE TROUGH SW TO 22N33W WITH NO
CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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