[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 261157
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON AUG 26 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FERNAND AT 26/1200 UTC IS NEAR
20.1N 97.2W. THIS POSITION IS ALSO ABOUT 80 NM/150 KM TO THE
NORTHWEST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO. FERNAND IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT
8 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 35 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 45
KNOTS. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY
UNDER MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 19N TO 24N
BETWEEN 93W AND 99W AROUND THE CYCLONE...AND WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS OF 16N96W AT THE COAST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
NUMEROUS STRONG ALONG THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN OF MEXICO FROM
14N TO 19N BETWEEN 97W AND 103W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN
INCHES AS OF 26/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE...MIATPTPAN...IS 0.67 IN
TEGUCIGALPA HONDURAS. DATA FROM THE ALVARADO MEXICO RADAR
INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FERNAND MADE LANDFALL
ON THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO ABOUT 22 NM/40 KM TO THE NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF VERACRUZ AT 1145 PM CDT...0445 UTC. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS AT LANDFALL WERE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KNOTS.

FERNAND IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 4 TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS
VERACRUZ...HIDALGO...NORTHERN PUEBLA...SOUTHERN TAMAULIPAS...AND
EASTERN SAN LUIS POTOSI MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
NEAR 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS MAY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SHOULD
CONTINUE IN PARTS OF THE WARNING AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19W TO THE SOUTH OF 22N
MOVING WESTWARD 10 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE IN THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 08N TO 12N BETWEEN 19W AND
25W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 37W/38W TO THE SOUTH OF
24N MOVING WESTWARD 10 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED STRONG IN THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 9N TO 12N BETWEEN
34W AND 38W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 20N TO
26N BETWEEN 33W AND 38W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 11N51W
MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED STRONG FROM 9N TO 12N BETWEEN 50W AND 55W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG
24N60W 18N62W 11N62W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 14N TO 20N BETWEEN
60W AND 64W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 12N TO 25N
BETWEEN 58W AND 70W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES AS OF
26/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLE...MIATPTPAN...IS 1.41 IN GUADELOUPE.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W/73W TO THE SOUTH OF
18N MOVING WESTWARD 10 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM TO 75 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 18N70W 16N76W 12N82W. NUMEROUS STRONG IN
NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA...TO THE WEST OF LAKE MARACAIBO...AND IN
COLOMBIA FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 73W AND 75W. THE COLOMBIA
PRECIPITATION EASILY MAY BE MORE RELATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH.
THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES AS OF 26/0000 UTC...
ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
TABLE...MIATPTPAN...IS 0.19 IN CURACAO.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SENEGAL NEAR 13N16W TO
8N24W 9N33W 11N38W 10N45W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS
STRONG FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 23W AND 26W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 6N TO 12N BETWEEN 20W AND 34W...AND FROM 7N
TO 15N BETWEEN 34W AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...CROSSING FLORIDA...INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N71W TO
THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NEAR 28N81W TO 31N87W NEAR THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND MISSISSIPPI. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A STATIONARY
FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA...TO 30N70W...28N79W...
CROSSING FLORIDA ALONG 28N...ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...INTO
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...INTO SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...TO 29N98W
IN TEXAS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG WITHIN 120 NM TO 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT
PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA TO 28N72W 25N80W 30N89W AND 29N96W.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE TO
LOCALLY STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO
THE NORTH OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO
24N90W AND 26N97W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES AS OF
26/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLE...MIATPTPAN...IS 1.82 IN BERMUDA.

THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL STORM FERNAND IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...AND FOR THE COASTAL STATIONS OF THE U.S.A.

BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE TO
LOCALLY STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO
THE NORTH OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO
24N90W AND 26N97W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN NEAR 21N75W...ACROSS JAMAICA...TO 15N79W IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...TO PANAMA NEAR 9N79W. MULTILAYERED MOISTURE IS STREAMING
NORTHWARD FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS HISPANIOLA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...THE 71W/73W TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA OF THE TROUGH. IT IS NOT EASY TO DIFFERENTIATE THE
PRECIPITATION THAT ONLY IS RELATED TO THE TROUGH FROM THE
PRECIPITATION THAT ONLY IS RELATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVE.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W/73W TO THE SOUTH OF
18N MOVING WESTWARD 10 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM TO 75 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 18N70W 16N76W 12N82W. NUMEROUS STRONG IN
NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA...TO THE WEST OF LAKE MARACAIBO...AND
IN COLOMBIA FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 73W AND 75W. THE COLOMBIA
PRECIPITATION EASILY MAY BE MORE RELATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH.
THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES AS OF 26/0000 UTC...
ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
TABLE...MIATPTPAN...IS 0.19 IN CURACAO.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG
24N60W 18N62W 11N62W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 14N TO 20N BETWEEN
60W AND 64W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 12N TO 25N
BETWEEN 58W AND 70W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES AS OF
26/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLE...MIATPTPAN...IS 1.41 IN GUADELOUPE.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N74W IN COLOMBIA...TO 8N80W IN
PANAMA...BEYOND 10N86W IN COSTA RICA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN COLOMBIA FROM 7N TO 9N
BETWEEN 73W AND 75W. SCATTERED STRONG ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA
TO THE SOUTH OF 11N BETWEEN 79W AND 81W.

HISPANIOLA...
HISPANIOLA FINDS ITSELF ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 21N75W...ACROSS JAMAICA...TO
15N79W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO PANAMA NEAR 9N79W. MULTILAYERED
MOISTURE IS STREAMING NORTHWARD FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS
HISPANIOLA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS FROM 16N TO THE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
BETWEEN 70W AND 72W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 70W/72W TO THE SOUTH OF
18N MOVING WESTWARD 10 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 14N TO 20N BETWEEN 66W AND 75W. NUMEROUS
STRONG IN COASTAL NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS
OF 11N69W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES AS OF 26/0000
UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLE...MIATPTPAN...IS 0.19 IN CURACAO.

THE 700 MB GFS FORECAST SHOWS THAT A HIGH AMPLITUDE INVERTED
TROUGH EVENTUALLY WILL FORM FROM THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...ACROSS
CUBA...INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY
WIND FLOW WILL PREVAIL FOR THE ENTIRE 48 HOUR PERIOD. THE 500 MB
GFS MODEL SHOWS THAT ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA
FOR THE ENTIRE TIME. THE 250 MB GFS FORECAST SHOWS THAT A TROUGH
WILL PASS THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. HISPANIOLA WILL BE ON THE EASTERN
SIDE OF THE TROUGH FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE WESTWARD. LARGE-SCALE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS ALONG 22N36W 17N40W 14N46W. THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF
THE TROUGH IS NEAR THE ATLANTIC OCEAN 37W/38W TROPICAL WAVE.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 20N TO 26N BETWEEN 33W AND 38W...AND THE MONSOON TROUGH
PRECIPITATION THAT COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 7N TO 15N
BETWEEN 34W AND 50W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N48W TO 29N56W...TO ANDROS
ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS...INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...TO EL SALVADOR. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 25N TO THE
32N63W 28N80W FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE EAST OF 80W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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