[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 260604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON AUG 26 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FERNAND AT 26/0600 UTC IS NEAR
19.6N 96.4W. THIS POSITION IS ALSO ABOUT 30 NM/55 KM TO THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO. FERNAND IS MOVING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 8 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE
45 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 55 KNOTS. PLEASE READ THE LATEST
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/
WTNT21 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG
FROM 18N TO 21N BETWEEN 95W AND 97W AROUND THE CYCLONE. NUMEROUS
STRONG FROM WESTERN GUATEMALA AND MEXICO NEAR 15N INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO TO 22N BETWEEN 91W AND 94W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STRONG ALSO IS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 21N TO 23N BETWEEN
94W AND THE MEXICO COAST. NUMEROUS STRONG IS IN SOUTHERN MEXICO
AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN COASTAL WATERS FROM 15N TO 19N
BETWEEN 98W AND 102W...AND WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 16N95W NEAR
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES
AS OF 26/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION TABLE...MIATPTPAN...IS 0.67 IN TEGUCIGALPA
HONDURAS. DATA FROM THE ALVARADO MEXICO RADAR INDICATE THAT THE
CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FERNAND MADE LANDFALL ON THE GULF COAST
OF MEXICO ABOUT 22 NM/40 KM TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OF VERACRUZ
AT 1145 PM CDT...0445 UTC. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS AT
LANDFALL WERE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KNOTS.
FERNAND IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 4 TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS
VERACRUZ...HIDALGO...NORTHERN PUEBLA...SOUTHERN TAMAULIPAS...AND
EASTERN SAN LUIS POTOSI MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS NEAR
12 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS MAY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE
IN PARTS OF THE WARNING AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W/37W TO THE SOUTH OF
23N MOVING WESTWARD 10 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 21N TO 26N BETWEEN
33W AND 37W...AND FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 34W AND 39W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 11N50W
MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 10N TO 11N BETWEEN 50W AND 52W. ISOLATED
MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 9N TO 12N BETWEEN 51W AND 54W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 62W
TO THE SOUTH OF 23N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED
TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 16N TO 19N BETWEEN
60W AND 62W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES AS OF
26/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLE...MIATPTPAN...IS 1.41 IN GUADELOUPE.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 15N TO 21N BETWEEN 59W
AND 65W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N60W...PASSING ACROSS
GUADELOUPE...TO THE VENEZUELA COAST NEAR 10N62W. THE WAVE IS
MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. SCATTERED STRONG FROM 14N TO 15N
BETWEEN 60W AND 62W...AND FROM 15N TO 16N BETWEEN 65W AND 67W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 18N BETWEEN
59W AND 70W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL MAURITANIA NEAR 19N16W
TO 10N19W 8N23W 13N37W 12N43W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 12N43W TO
12N49W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 6N TO 8N
BETWEEN 23W AND 26W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM
5N TO 15N BETWEEN 27W AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...CROSSING FLORIDA...INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N72W TO
THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NEAR 29N81W TO 31N87W NEAR THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND MISSISSIPPI. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N63W TO 30N69W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES
FROM 30N69W TO 28N78W...CROSSING FLORIDA ALONG 28N...ACROSS THE
GULF OF MEXICO...INTO SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...INTO SOUTHWESTERN
LOUISIANA...TO 29N98W IN TEXAS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 120 NM TO
180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N64W TO
30N70W...27N80W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF
THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO 23N90W AND
26N97W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES AS OF
26/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLE...MIATPTPAN...IS 1.82 IN BERMUDA.

THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL STORM FERNAND IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...AND FOR THE COASTAL STATIONS OF THE U.S.A.

BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE TO
LOCALLY STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO
THE NORTH OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO
23N90W AND 26N97W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT TROPICAL
STORM FERNAND THAT IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 24N68W IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS ON
TOP OF THE BORDER OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...INTO THE
CARIBBEAN SEA TO 16N75W...TO 9N76W ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM THE
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC DIRECTLY INTO HAITI.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG IN CUBA AND ITS COASTAL WATERS FROM
19N77W BETWEEN JAMAICA AND CUBA...NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
CARIBBEAN SEA COAST OF CUBA TO 83W IN CUBA.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 70W/72W TO THE SOUTH OF
18N MOVING WESTWARD 10 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 14N TO 20N BETWEEN 66W AND 75W. NUMEROUS
STRONG IN COASTAL NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS
OF 11N69W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 76W AND 80W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL
TOTAL IN INCHES AS OF 26/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN
AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE...MIATPTPAN...
IS 0.19 IN CURACAO.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 62W
TO THE SOUTH OF 23N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED
TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 16N TO 19N BETWEEN
60W AND 62W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 15N TO 21N
BETWEEN 59W AND 65W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES AS OF
26/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLE...MIATPTPAN...IS 1.41 IN GUADELOUPE.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 7N74W IN COLOMBIA...TO 9N78W IN
PANAMA...BEYOND 10N86W IN COSTA RICA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA
BETWEEN 79W AND 81W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET
FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 70W AND 78W. EXPECT ALSO EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE
SOUTH OF 19N TO THE WEST OF 85W INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF
HONDURAS.

HISPANIOLA...

HISPANIOLA FINDS ITSELF ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 21N75W...ACROSS JAMAICA...TO
15N79W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO PANAMA NEAR 9N79W. MULTILAYERED
MOISTURE IS STREAMING NORTHWARD FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS
HISPANIOLA.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 70W/72W TO THE SOUTH OF
18N MOVING WESTWARD 10 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 14N TO 20N BETWEEN 66W AND 75W. NUMEROUS
STRONG IN COASTAL NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS
OF 11N69W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES AS OF 26/0000
UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLE...MIATPTPAN...IS 0.19 IN CURACAO.

THE 700 MB GFS FORECAST SHOWS THAT A HIGH AMPLITUDE INVERTED
TROUGH EVENTUALLY WILL FORM FROM THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...ACROSS
CUBA...INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY
WIND FLOW WILL PREVAIL FOR THE ENTIRE 48 HOUR PERIOD. THE 500 MB
GFS MODEL SHOWS THAT ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA
FOR THE ENTIRE TIME. THE 250 MB GFS FORECAST SHOWS THAT A TROUGH
WILL PASS THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. HISPANIOLA WILL BE ON THE EASTERN
SIDE OF THE TROUGH FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE WESTWARD. LARGE-SCALE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS ALONG 22N36W 17N40W 14N46W. THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF
THE TROUGH IS NEAR THE ATLANTIC OCEAN 35W/37W TROPICAL WAVE.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 21N TO 26N BETWEEN 33W AND 37W...AND FROM 10N TO 14N
BETWEEN 34W AND 39W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N45W TO 28N62W...ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS NEAR 25N76W...TO WESTERN CUBA ALONG 82W...AND THEN
SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 24N TO THE 32N63W 28N80W
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE EAST OF 80W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR DETAILS
ABOUT WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET FROM 20N
TO 26N TO THE EAST OF 45W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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