[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 302350
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE APR 30 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR
8N13W TO 3N17W. THE ITCZ BEGINS FROM 3N17W AND CONTINUES ALONG
1N30W EQ40W EQ50W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
EQ-1N BETWEEN 10W-20W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM NORTH OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 25W-37W.
SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS ALSO FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 42W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A LARGE BURST OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. BASED OFF OF LIGHTNING DATA AND RADAR
IMAGERY...THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY IS FROM 25N-27N BETWEEN 88W-
93W...AND ALONG A LINE FROM 26N87W TO 31N89W. CLUSTERS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO DOT MUCH OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THE ACTIVITY IN THE CENTRAL GULF IS MAINLY CONNECTED
TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE NW GULF WITH AXIS NEAR 94W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS
ANALYZED ALONG 28N94W TO 25N93W TO THE WEST OF THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY...BUT IT IS MAINLY INFLUENCED BY THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN. THE SW GULF REMAINS CLEAR AT THIS TIME AS WELL AS
PORTIONS OF THE SE GULF. SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW OF 10-15 KT
SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN THE AREAS OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. MOIST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
BROAD LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE CENTRAL GULF BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MOSTLY DRY AIR ALOFT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN IN WESTERLY FLOW. THE
DRY AIR ALOFT IS HELPING MAINTAIN MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS AT THE
SURFACE. HOWEVER...A FEW AREAS OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE POPPED UP OVER A FEW OF THE ISLANDS INCLUDING
CUBA...HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...AND PUERTO RICO. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO IN THE VICINITY OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES FROM 13N-18N EAST OF 64W. THIS ACTIVITY IS TIED
TO AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE TO THE EAST OF THE ISLANDS.
TRADEWIND FLOW OF 15 KT CONTINUES THROUGHOUT THE AREA. LITTLE
CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH OFF THE CAROLINAS' COAST IS SUPPORTING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEST ATLC
NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 72W-78W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST
SUPPORTS A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AROUND A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 32N70W.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 35N43W CONTINUES TO SUPPORT AN OCCLUDED
1004 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 34N45W. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
EXTENDS INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 32N42W 27N45W 24N52W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS EXTEND UP TO 300 NM EAST OF THE AXIS NORTH OF
27N. BROAD SURFACE RIDGING IS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE EAST
ATLC SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 30W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON

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