[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301745
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE APR 30 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SIERRA LEONE NEAR
8N13W AND EXTENDS SW TO 3N16W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 3N16W TO
1N30W TO 0N40W TO COASTAL BRAZIL AT 1N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 3N-2S
BETWEEN 4W-13W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 0N-4N BETWEEN 16W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED W OF BERMUDA NEAR 33N70W PRODUCING SE
SURFACE FLOW OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO. A SQUALL LINE IS OVER
THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO FROM 30N92W TO 25N91W MOVING E.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 16N-31N BETWEEN 88W-93W.
ELSEWHERE...RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER S FLORIDA FROM 25N-28N E OF 82W. ALSO OF
NOTE...SMOKE IS REPORTED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 22N. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER SE TEXAS
NEAR 30N96W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SE OF THE CENTER IS
ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. EXPECT THE
CONVECTION TO MOVE TO THE NE GULF OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FURTHER E OVER VENEZUELA FROM 7N-
10N BETWEEN 64W-69W. 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN
SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS S OF 25N E
OF 70W. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PUERTO
RICO...AND HISPANIOLA. MORE SHOWERS ARE OVER W PANAMA...COSTA
RICA...W HONDURAS...GUATEMALA...AND BELIZE. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...AND THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND N BAHAMAS N OF 26N
BETWEEN 74W-80W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF BARBADOS S OF 15N BETWEEN 55W-60W. A 1006
MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 34N47W. A COLD
FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO 32N44W TO 30N45W TO 25N50W TO
23N55W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 28N BETWEEN
40W-44W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE
FRONT. SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 25N BETWEEN
15W-30W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE
OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS DUE TO A 1010 MB LOW OVER SPAIN. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...A 90 KT JETSTREAM IS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
22N17W TO 20N60W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR AN INCREASE
OF CONVECTION E OF BARBADOS...AS WELL AS NE OF THE BAHAMAS. ALSO
EXPECT THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO MOVE E WITH CONTINUED
CONVECTION AND SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA

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