[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251745
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU APR 25 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N12W TO
03N22W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
03N22W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 31W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 06N BETWEEN 07W-17W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-08N BETWEEN 18W-25W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
GENERALLY WESTERLY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS NOTED OVER THE
GULF THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC REGION NEAR 10N93W AND A PAIR OF MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CENTERED OVER THE NE CONUS AND
GREAT LAKES REGION. THE OVERALL TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
NEAR 30N85W AND INTO THE GULF TO NEAR 28N88W. THE FRONT THEN
BECOMES STATIONARY AND SNAKES ALONG 27N90W TO 26N95W TO 22N96W
THEN DISSIPATES TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 20N97W. WITH VERY
LITTLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMIC SUPPORT LEFT FOR THE STATIONARY
FRONT...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
BOUNDARY IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM
25N-29N BETWEEN 88W-97W. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO NOTED
ON MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE GULF DURING
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND CONTINUE DISSIPATING. THEREAFTER...
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE MID-
ATLC STATES IS FORECAST TO PROVIDE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS FOR
THE DURATION OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
OVERALL DRY AND STABLE AIR IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES
OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON KEEPING CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE BASIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL. SATELLITE AND TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATE INCREASED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
AND ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN S OF 16N E
OF 69W. OTHERWISE...TRADE WINDS REMAIN IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20
KT AND ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN THAT RANGE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION EXPECTED WILL BE PERIODS OF
SLIGHTLY HIGHER NE TRADES S OF 13N BETWEEN 72W-78W IN THE AREA
OF CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COLOMBIA COAST.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
SW NORTH ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS
TO BEYOND 32N74W. WHILE A 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 30N76W IS
PROVIDING OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON W OF 70W...AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ANALYZED INLAND ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. PRE-FRONTAL TROUGHING AND
CONVERGENCE LINE IS GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN
45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 30N80W TO 34N75W. FARTHER
EAST...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS CENTERED NEAR 25N62W THAT SUPPORTS A DISSIPATING STATIONARY
FRONT FROM 27N70W N-NE TO BEYOND 32N66W AND A SURFACE TROUGH
FROM 23N66W TO 28N65W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 60
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT...WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A
LINE FROM 20N59W TO 27N65W TO 32N64W. THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY
ENHANCED DUE TO THE AREA OF MAXIMUM MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE EAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. FINALLY...THE
REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DEEP
LAYERED LOW CENTERED NEAR 34N33W. THE LOW REFLECTS TO THE
SURFACE AS A 998 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 34N31W WITH THE ASSOCIATED
OCCLUSION WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW TO A TRIPLE POINT LOCATED NEAR
THE AZORES NEAR 37N26W. THE COLD FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION
AREA NEAR 32N23W AND EXTENDS S-SW ALONG 28N25W TO 22N30W TO
19N38W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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