[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 251142
TWDAT

AXNT20 KNHC DDHHMM
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU APR 25 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL LIBERIA NEAR
6N11W...TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 14W...TO 3S18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 3S18W TO 4S25W AND 5S30W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 2S TO 5N BETWEEN 7W AND 13W...AND OFF THE
COASTS OF VENEZUELA AND GUYANA TO THE SOUTH OF 9N BETWEEN 57W
AND 60W. SCATTERED STRONG FROM 3N TO 6N BETWEEN 17W AND
21W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 4N BETWEEN 23W AND 25W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 5N TO 9N BETWEEN 49W AND 52W.
ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE SOUTH OF 2N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 14N95W IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TO THE SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO... INTO CENTRAL MEXICO...AND BEYOND THE TEXAS
BIG BEND. BROAD ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS MEXICO...THE GULF
OF MEXICO...AND CENTRAL AMERICA FROM NICARAGUA NORTHWARD. MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS TO THE SOUTH OF 27N.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS WELL INLAND. THE TROUGH
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
ALONG 86W/87W...TO 28N92W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 28N92W TO
25N95W...TO THE MEXICO GULF COAST ALONG 21N...AND 25N101W IN
MEXICO. THE FRONT IS DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT FROM 25N101W
TO THE WESTERN PART OF THE TEXAS BIG BEND. SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION FROM 26N TO 28N BETWEEN 92W AND 96W.

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE U.S.A. COASTAL PLAINS FROM THE DEEP
SOUTH OF TEXAS TO THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. PRECIPITATION
HAS BEEN OBSERVED FROM TEXAS TO LOUISIANA. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
AND LOW VISIBILITIES ARE IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND PARTS OF
ALABAMA. LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE ALONG THE FLORIDA COAST FROM THE
PANHANLE TO 29N OR SO. FAIR SKIES AT OR BELOW 12000 FEET COVER
THE REST OF THE FLORIDA COASTAL PLAINS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

ICAO STATION KGUL IS REPORTING A VISIBILITY OF LESS THAN 1 MILE
WITH FOG. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS AT THE ICAO STATIONS
KGVX...KGUL... KHQI...KEIR...KSPR...KMYT...KIPN...AND KVBS. ICAO
STATION KGBK IS REPORTING A CLOUD CEILING AT 8500 FEET.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN NEAR 32N66W TO 25N65W TO 23N62W AND 18N62W IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 14N64W AND 13N66W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
TO THE EAST OF 70W.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO AND ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE WIND
FLOW REMAINS NORTHWESTERLY EVERYWHERE ELSE...AND IT EVENTUALLY
MERGES WITH THE 32N66W 18N62W 13N66W TROUGH...AND THE UPPER
LEVEL WIND FLOW THAT HAS BEEN ORIGINATING IN SOUTH AMERICA.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW THAT ORIGINATES IN
SOUTH AMERICA...IS TO THE SOUTH OF 17N60W 15N70W 13N77W AND
12N80W.

RAINSHOWERS ALSO ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LINE THAT
RUNS FROM JAMAICA INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.

CLUSTERS OF STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ARE IN COLOMBIA FROM
4N TO 9N...RELATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH...WHICH IS ALONG 6N73W
5N77W...BEYOND 6N80W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N66W TO
25N65W TO 23N62W AND 18N62W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A DISSIPATING
STATIONARY FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N68W TO 28N70W AND
26N72W. A SEPARATE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 25N68W 20N67W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG IS TO THE NORTH OF 21N BETWEEN 57W AND 66W.

A SECOND SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N53W TO 26N55W 22N50W TO
16N43W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 34N31W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER... TO 20N47W...TO 18N54W. A 997 MB
GALE CENTER IS NEAR 33N34W. A COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY PASSES
THROUGH 32N24W TO 26N27W AND 22N36W. ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 27W AND
38W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALSO ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTHWEST
AND NORTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N23W 24N28W 19N40W
18N48W 16N50W 20N66W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT

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