[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 242332
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED APR 24 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR
7N12W INTO THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLC TO 1N16W. THE ITCZ BEGINS
NEAR 1N16W AND CONTINUES SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR TO BRAZIL ALONG
2S20W 4S31W 7S38W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
EQ-4N BETWEEN 3W-7W...FROM EQ-3N BETWEEN 8W-12W...AND FROM EQ-1N
BETWEEN 17W-22W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM
EQ-5N BETWEEN 16W-24W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO...A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS SKIMMING THE
NORTH CENTRAL PORTION NEAR LOUISIANA SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT
THAT DRAPES ACROSS THE NW CORNER. AS OF 2100 UTC...THE FRONT
EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF MISSISSIPPI NEAR 30N89W TOWARDS MEXICO
ALONG 26N94W 23N98W CONTINUING INTO MEXICO. A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH IS EAST OF THE FRONT IN THE SW GULF ALONG 24N95W TO
20N95W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 250
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS NORTH OF 28N. ISOLATED SHOWERS EXTEND
UP TO 90 NM EAST...AND 200 NM WEST OF THE AXIS ELSEWHERE.
NORTHEAST WIND OF 20-25 KT ARE IMMEDIATELY WEST OF THE FRONT.
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10-15 KT COVER THE EASTERN GULF
AROUND WEAK SURFACE RIDGING CENTERED IN THE WESTERN ATLC. CLEAR
SKIES STILL COVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE SE GULF INCLUDING THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST...WHILE THE WESTERN PORTION WILL STALL AND
DISSIPATE OVER THE SW GULF WITH SURFACE TROUGHING REMAINING.
SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST AS WELL AS IN THE SW GULF IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
DRY AIR ALOFT COVERS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF...AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS
THE EASTERN. THE DRY AIR IS PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES ACROSS A GOOD
PORTION OF THE AREA EXCEPT FOR A FEW SHOWERS THAT HAVE POPPED UP
OVER JAMAICA...SOUTHERN CUBA...CENTRAL HISPANIOLA...AND SOUTHERN
PUERTO RICO. AN AREA OF ISOLATED SHOWERS IS ALSO ACROSS THE SE
CARIBBEAN FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 61W-68W ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA
OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. TRADEWIND FLOW OF 10-15 KT STILL REMAINS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE FAR WESTERN ATLC SUPPORTED BY AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. A NARROW
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE EAST ALONG 67W SUPPORTS A WEAK COLD
FRONT ALONG 32N67W TO 26N72W AS WELL AS A SURFACE TROUGH TO THE
SOUTH ALONG 27N70W TO 21N70W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE
COLD FRONT AXIS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS A BIT TO THE EAST BETWEEN
62W-66W NORTH OF 21N. SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC
ANCHORED BY A 1043 HIGH WELL NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR 46N48W.  THE
RIDGE IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 56W. THE
EASTERN ATLC IS IMPACTED BY A DEEP LAYERED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 34N32W AND A 996 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR
37N34W. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE DISCUSSION
AREA ALONG 32N26W 26N30W 21N39W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS WEST OF THE
FRONT ALONG 32N31W TO 28N35W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE
FRONT AXIS WITH  NO ACTIVITY ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH. GALE
FORCE WINDS ARE ALSO PRESENT WEST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH NORTH OF
30N BETWEEN 37W-40W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON


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