[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241744
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED APR 24 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N12W TO
THE EQUATOR NEAR 22W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 07N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 23W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-07N BETWEEN 26W-39W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGRESSING E-NE
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED
ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND ACROSS THE NW GULF FROM 30N93W TO
NEAR BROWNSVILLE TEXAS NEAR 26N97W. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR AND
LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO ERODE AWAY SURFACE RIDGING WHICH REMAINS ANCHORED
IN THE SW NORTH ATLC. THE RIDGING IS PROVIDING MUCH OF THE GULF
EAST OF THE FRONT WITH SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10
TO 20 KT. NW OF THE FRONT...STRONG N-NE WINDS ARE OCCURRING IN
THE RANGE OF 20 TO 25 KT UNDER OVERCAST SKIES THIS AFTERNOON.
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE SLIDING EASTWARD
ALONG THE GULF COAST AND SE CONUS THROUGH LATE THURSDAY WHILE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS BEGIN TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AS
HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS IN ACROSS THE SE CONUS AND GULF
BY FRIDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
OVERALL DRY AND STABLE AIR IN WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
DOMINATES OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON KEEPING
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BASIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL. SATELLITE AND TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATE INCREASED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
AND ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN S OF 16N E
OF 68W. OTHERWISE...TRADE WINDS REMAIN IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20
KT AND ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN THAT RANGE THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC WITH
AXIS ALONG 68W THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED INTO THE
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N68W AND EXTENDS S-SW TO 25N74W. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS FOUND S-SE OF THE COLD FRONT FROM 26N71W TO
THE NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N72W. WITHIN THE AREA OF
MAXIMUM MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS
AND WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COLD FRONT...WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING N OF 20N BETWEEN 60W-
69W AND WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT. THE
REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC WEST OF THE FRONT IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST NEAR 34N76W. FARTHER EAST OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS ALONG 54W AND
EXTENDS FAR NORTH OF THE AREA AS THE CURRENT PATTERN OVER THE
NORTHERN ATLC CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY. THE RIDGING ALOFT SUPPORTS A
SURFACE RIDGE BETWEEN 40W-60W ANCHORED BY A STRONG 1042 MB HIGH
CENTERED OFF THE NEWFOUNDLAND COAST NEAR 46N49W. THE REMAINDER
OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DEEP LAYERED LOW
CENTERED NEAR 34N34W. THE LOW REFLECTS AS A 998 MB SURFACE LOW
CENTERED NEAR 38N31W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N28W. THE FRONT EXTENDS SW ALONG 27N30W
TO 24N33W TO 22N41W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY EAST OF THE COLD FRONT FROM 20N-32N BETWEEN
17W-25W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN

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