[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 241059
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED APR 24 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA
NEAR 10N14W...TO 5N19W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
5N19W TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 23W...TO 1S28W...1N32W...
CROSSING THE EQUATOR AGAIN ALONG 34W...TO 2S38W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 1N
TO 6N BETWEEN 12W AND 20W...FROM 2N TO 5N BETWEEN
25W AND 28W...WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM OF THE BRAZIL
COAST BETWEEN 36W AND 43W...AND IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 58W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
SOUTHERN GUATEMALA NEAR 15N91W TO 19N96W...
BEYOND 29N97W IN SOUTH TEXAS. BROAD ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. MIDDLE LEVEL
TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS MOVING ACROSS MEXICO
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE WEST OF THE LINE
THAT RUNS FROM 30N86W 24N86W 23N91W 18N93W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N80W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 29N82W IN FLORIDA...TO
26N87W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO 24N93W...
AND TO 21N97W IN THE COASTAL PLAINS OF MEXICO.

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE TEXAS COASTAL
PLAINS FROM THE DEEP SOUTH TO THE BEAUMONT/
PORT ARTHUR AREA...INTO LOUISIANA...AND
MISSISSIPPI. A VISIBILITY OF ONE MILE WITH FOG
IS BEING REPORTED AT THE AIRPORT IN GULF SHORES
ALABAMA. THE NAVAL AIR STATION THAT IS NEAR
MILTON FLORIDA IS REPORTING A VISIBILITY OF
LESS THAN ONE MILE WITH FOG. CRESTVIEW FLORIDA
ALSO IS REPORTING A VISIBILITY OF LESS THAN
ONE MILE WITH FOG. FAIR SKIES AT OR BELOW
12000 FEET COVER THE REST OF FLORIDA.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE
TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...

ICAO STATION KHQI IS REPORTING A VISIBILITY OF
1 MILE OR LESS WITH FOG. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD
CEILING IS AT THE ICAO STATIONS KGVX...KGBK...
AND KVBS.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT THE 12-HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT
29N91W 25N97W. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT NORTHEAST
WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE
SOUTH OF 28N TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH 17N51W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO
15N56W...TO THE EAST OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA ISLANDS. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE
SOUTH OF 17N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. THE 24-HOUR
RAINFALL TOTAL FOR GUADELOUPE...FOR THE TIME
PERIOD ENDING AT 24/0000 UTC...IS 0.28 OF AN
INCH...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE...
MIATPTPAN.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
INTO AND ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE WIND
FLOW REMAINS NORTHWESTERLY EVERYWHERE
ELSE...AND IT EVENTUALLY MERGES WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW THAT HAS BEEN
ORIGINATING IN SOUTH AMERICA.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
THAT ORIGINATES IN SOUTH AMERICA...IS TO
THE SOUTH OF 17N60W 15N70W 13N77W AND
12N80W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 5N75W IN COLOMBIA...
BEYOND 4N84W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG
FROM 5N TO 6N BETWEEN 74W AND 75W...AND FROM
5N TO 6N BETWEEN 77W AND 78W IN COLOMBIA
AND AT THE COLOMBIA COAST.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH 32N71W TO 25N68W 23N64W AND TO 20N60W.
THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N70W TO 28N72W AND 24N73W. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS ALONG 24N74W...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...
TO CUBA NEAR 20N75W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 23N TO 27N
BETWEEN 66W AND 70W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE ALSO FROM 17N...ACROSS THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC AND PUERTO RICO BEYOND 32N BETWEEN
60W AND 70W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N55W TO
24N56W TO 16N47W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH 32N29W TO 25N32W 20N40W TO 17N51W...
TO 15N56W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N29W
TO 27N35W AND 24N45W. THE SOUTHERN END OF
A WARM FRONT REACHES 31N25W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
TO THE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 23W AND 26W.
ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF
28N BETWEEN 23W AND 30W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ALSO ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N23W
24N30W 18N40W 17N50W 18N60W 21N70W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT 20 TO 25 KNOT
NORTH AND NORTHEAST WINDS AND 9 TO 11 FOOT SEA
HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE EAST OF 41W.
EXPECT ALSO NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO
25 KNOTS AND 9 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE
NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 41W AND 48W. EXPECT ALSO
WIND SPEEDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS
REACHING 9 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 23N
TO THE EAST OF 52W. A COLD FRONT IS ALONG
31N69W 24N71W. EXPECT WIND SPEEDS 20 KNOTS OR
LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 8 FEET TO THE
NORTH OF 30N TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT TO 62W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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