[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240551
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED APR 24 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA-
BISSAU NEAR 12N17W...TO 10N18W 7N20W AND 5N23W.
THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N23W TO 2N30W...CROSSING
THE EQUATOR ALONG 31W...TO COASTAL NORTHEASTERN
BRAZIL NEAR 5S36W AND INLAND TO 5N44W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 2N TO 6N
BETWEEN 13W AND 17W...FROM 3N TO 5N BETWEEN 24W
AND 26W...AND IN BRAZIL AND ITS COASTAL WATERS
FROM 3S TO 6S BETWEEN 37W AND 39W...AND FROM
6S TO 3S BETWEEN 42W AND 46W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 6N BETWEEN 30W AND 37W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE SOUTH
OF 3N BETWEEN 40W AND 55W...AND FROM 6N TO 9N
BETWEEN 46W AND 55W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
SOUTHERN GUATEMALA NEAR 15N91W TO 19N96W...
BEYOND 29N97W IN SOUTH TEXAS. BROAD ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. MIDDLE LEVEL
TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS MOVING ACROSS MEXICO
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE WEST OF THE LINE
THAT RUNS FROM 30N86W 24N86W 23N91W 18N93W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N80W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 29N82W IN FLORIDA...TO
26N87W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO 24N93W...
AND TO 21N97W IN THE COASTAL PLAINS OF MEXICO.

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE TEXAS COASTAL
PLAINS FROM THE DEEP SOUTH TO THE BEAUMONT/
PORT ARTHUR AREA OF THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS COVER MUCH OF THE
COASTAL PLAINS AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF LOUISIANA
AND MISSISSIPPI. FAIR SKIES AT OR BELOW 12000 FEET
COVER THE COASTAL PLAINS OF ALABAMA AND THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN
PANAMA CITY FLORIDA AREA. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW
CLOUDS COVER THE FLORIDA KEYS. FAIR SKIES AT OR
BELOW 12000 FEET COVER THE REST OF THE FLORIDA
COASTAL PLAINS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE
TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...

ICAO STATION KHQI IS REPORTING A VISIBILITY OF
1 MILE OR LESS WITH FOG. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD
CEILING IS AT THE ICAO STATIONS KGUL AND KMYT.
ICAO KVBS...OFF THE SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA COAST...
IS REPORTING CLOUD CEILINGS AT 6500 FEET AND
AT 8500 FEET.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT THE 18-HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT
29N92W 25N97W. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS
AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH
OF 28N TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH 17N50W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS TO 15N65W
IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
FROM THE VENEZUELA COAST TO 18N BETWEEN 60W
AND 70W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR
GUADELOUPE...FOR THE TIME PERIOD ENDING AT
24/0000 UTC...IS 0.28 OF AN INCH...ACCORDING
TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLE...MIATPTPAN.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
INTO AND ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE WIND
FLOW REMAINS NORTHWESTERLY EVERYWHERE
ELSE...AND IT EVENTUALLY MERGES WITH THE
WIND FLOW THAT IS AROUND THE 17N50W 15N65W
TROUGH.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
THAT ORIGINATES IN SOUTH AMERICA...IS TO
THE SOUTH OF 17N60W 15N70W 13N77W AND
12N80W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N74W IN COLOMBIA...
TO 8N78W IN PANAMA...BEYOND 8N81W IN PANAMA...
INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG FROM 2N TO 6N
BETWEEN 73W AND 83W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH 32N72W TO 25N70W 23N64W AND TO 20N60W.
THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N70W TO 28N72W AND 25N74W. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS ALONG 25N74W...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...
TO CUBA NEAR 20N75W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE
NORTH OF 23N BETWEEN 63W AND 75W. RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE ALSO FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 68W
AND 77W FROM THE WATERS THAT ARE OFF THE
NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N54W TO
23N54W TO 14N43W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH 32N31W TO 24N36W TO 17N50W...ACROSS
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS TO 15N65W
IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS
FROM A 34N29W TRIPLE POINT...TO 30N32W 25N40W
AND 25N43W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE
TRIPLE POINT TO 31N26W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
FROM 31N TO 33N BETWEEN 25W AND 26W...
ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF
28N BETWEEN 24W AND 32W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ALSO ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N24W
24N30W 18N40W 17N50W 18N60W 21N70W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE COLD
FRONT 28N35W 25N43W. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT
NORTH WINDS AND 9 TO 11 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO
THE NORTH OF THE LINE 31N35W 29N40W 29N45W
31N48W. EXPECT ALSO WIND SPEEDS 20 KNOTS OR
LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 8 TO 11 FEET
ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE 30N35W
23N41W 23N47W 31N56W. A SECOND COLD FRONT
IS ALONG 31N71W 25N74W. EXPECT WIND SPEEDS
20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING
8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 30N TO THE EAST
OF THE FRONT TO 64W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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