[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 221151
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON APR 22 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL LIBERIA NEAR 7N11W...
JUST OFF THE BORDER WITH SIERRA LEONE...TO 5N15W AND 3N21W. THE
ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 3N21W TO 2N30W 2N35W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN A 30 TO 60 NM RADIUS OF
2N3W...FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN 14W AND 20W. SCATTERED STRONG FROM
4N TO 6N BETWEEN 34W AND 52W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS
PRECIPITATION MAY BE MORE RELATED TO SPEED DIVERGENCE THAN TO
THE ITCZ. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 7N.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 31N87W IN
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...TO 27N86W. THE REST OF THE MIDDLE LEVEL
TO UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW IS NORTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO.

ONE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 27N88W 24N89W...TO 20N89W IN THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH
IS PARALLEL TO THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM THE NORTHEASTERN
CORNER OF FLORIDA...TOWARD MIAMI/FORT LAUDERDALE... AND CURVING
TOWARD THE FLORIDA KEYS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN 60 NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N77W 28N79W 26N81W 24N83W. THIS
PRECIPITATION COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... FLORIDA...THE GULF OF
MEXICO...AND POSSIBLY CUBA.

THE OBSERVATIONS FOR THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTAL PLAINS
STATIONS SHOW CLEAR SKIES/FAIR SKIES AT 12000 FEET OR LOWER.
PATTERSON MEMORIAL AIRPORT IN PATTERSON LOUISIANA IS REPORTING A
LOW CLOUD CEILING OF 200 FEET. LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD
CEILINGS WITH POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION COVER THE FLORIDA COASTAL
SECTIONS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

ICAO STATION KHQI IS REPORTING A VISIBILITY OF 2 MILES OR LESS
WITH HAZE. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE AT ICAO STATION
KGUL...ICAO STATION KMYT...AND ICAO STATION KSPR.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A WEAKENING
ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR
20N60W...INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 16N62W AND 14N63W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 15N TO THE EAST OF 70W...AND
FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND
FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE
TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNT FOR THE 24-HOUR TIME PERIOD ENDING AT
22/0000 UTC FOR GUADELOUPE IS 0.26 OF AN INCH...ACCORDING TO THE
PAN AMERICAN TEMPERTATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE...MIATPTPAN.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO AND ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE WIND
FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHERLY TO THE SOUTH OF 17N TO THE WEST OF
79W. THE WIND FLOW REMAINS NORTHWESTERLY EVERYWHERE ELSE...AND
IT EVENTUALLY MERGES WITH THE WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND
THE 20N60W 14N65W 13N66W TROUGH.

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW FROM SOUTH AMERICA IS TO THE
SOUTH OF 14N60W 12N70W 12N76W.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 70W
AND 81W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR
25N65W...INTO THE EAST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 15N66W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 7N76W IN COLOMBIA... BEYOND 6N83W
INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN
COLOMBIA...AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 73W
AND 79W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 29N TO THE WEST OF 72W. A
WARM FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N75W TO 31N77W. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
IS SPREADING EASTWARD...FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...ACROSS
FLORIDA...INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE COVERS THE AREA THAT IS BETWEEN 70W AND 82W FROM CUBA
NORTHWARD.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N64W TO 25N65W... ACROSS PUERTO
RICO...AND INTO THE EAST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 15N66W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 28N37W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 20N50W...TO A SECOND AND
WEAKENING CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 20N60W...INTO
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 16N62W AND 14N63W. A SURFACE
TROUGH CURVES AWAY FROM A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS
NEAR 27N38W...TO 29N36W 24N35W 21N40W 20N46W AND 21N54W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE
NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN 60 NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 26N33W 21N38W 20N46W
21N55W 27N60W BEYOND 31N60W.

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N22W TO
26N23W TO 15N27W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT

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