[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 220718 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...COR
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON APR 22 2013

CORRECTION IN ORDER TO UPDATE THE CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION INFORMATION FOR THE ITCZ/THE
MONSOON TROUGH...

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN COASTAL
SIERRA LEONE...JUST OFF THE BORDER WITH LIBERIA...
NEAR 7N12W...TO 5N16W AND 4N21W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 4N21W TO 4N40W 4N45W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL
TO THE BORDER OF THE SOUTHERN PART OF FRENCH GUIANA
NEAR 2N54W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS
STRONG FROM 2N TO 3N BETWEEN 2W AND 4W...FROM 4N TO
6N BETWEEN 14W AND 20W...FROM 4N TO 5N BETWEEN 34W
AND 38W...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 4N TO 5N BETWEEN
41W AND 52W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 4N TO 5N BETWEEN 9W AND 13W...AND FROM 6N TO
7N BETWEEN 52W AND 53W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE
TO THE SOUTH OF 6N BETWEEN 20W AND 37W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
30N87W...JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...TO 26N89W. THE REST OF THE MIDDLE LEVEL
TO UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW IS NORTHWESTERLY ACROSS
THE GULF OF MEXICO.

ONE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 28N87W 24N89W...TO
20N89W IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION WAS COVERING THE AREA FROM 24N TO 29N
BETWEEN 84W AND 88W...AND FROM 22N TO 23N BETWEEN
86W AND 87W...AT 21/2015 UTC. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION NOW IS IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 24N
TO 25N BETWEEN 82W AND 83W BETWEEN THE FLORIDA KEYS
AND CUBA...AND TO THE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 76W AND
80W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH
IS IN FLORIDA FROM 30N80W TO 28N81W AND 25N81W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...FLORIDA...
AND THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 26N TO 30N BETWEEN
78W AND 85W.

THE OBSERVATIONS FOR THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTAL
PLAINS STATIONS SHOW CLEAR SKIES/FAIR SKIES AT
12000 FEET OR LOWER. THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN
KINGSVILLE...KNQI...IS REPORTING A LOW CLOUD
CEILING. PATTERSON MEMORIAL AIRPORT IN PATTERSON
LOUISIANA IS REPORTING A LOW CLOUD CEILING OF
200 FEET. THE VISIBILITIES IN PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI
WERE LOWER THAN 2 MILES FOR THE LAST FEW OBSERVATIONS.
THE VISIBILITY HAS GONE TO 4 MILES FOR THE LAST
REPORT. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS...RANGING IN HEIGHT FROM
5000 FEET TO 7000 FEET...COVER FLORIDA FROM PERRY
FLORIDA WESTWARD. LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD
CEILINGS WITH PRECIPITATION COVER FLORIDA TO THE
SOUTH OF PERRY.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE
TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...

ICAO STATION KHQI IS REPORTING A VISIBILITY OF
1.5 MILES AND HAZE. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE
AT ICAO STATION KGUL AND ICAO STATION KMYT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 20N60W...INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA NEAR 14N65W AND 13N66W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W IN
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN
54W AND 60W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE TOTAL
PRECIPITATION AMOUNT FOR THE 24-HOUR TIME
PERIOD ENDING AT 19/1200 UTC FOR GUADELOUPE IS
0.26 OF AN INCH...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERTATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE...MIATPTPAN.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
MOVES FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO AND ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. THE WIND FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHERLY
TO THE SOUTH OF 17N TO THE WEST OF 79W. THE WIND
FLOW REMAINS NORTHWESTERLY EVERYWHERE ELSE...AND
IT EVENTUALLY MERGES WITH THE WIND FLOW THAT IS
MOVING AROUND THE 20N60W 14N65W 13N66W TROUGH.

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW FROM SOUTH
AMERICA IS TO THE SOUTH OF 14N60W 12N70W 12N76W.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 16N TO 20N
BETWEEN 60W AND 71W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN NEAR 23N64W...INTO THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 17N64W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N73W IN COLOMBIA...
TO 9N79W IN PANAMA...BEYOND 9N83W IN THE SOUTHERN
COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM
8N TO 9N BETWEEN 78W AND 79W IN PANAMA...AND FROM
9N TO 10N BETWEEN 73W AND 75W IN COLOMBIA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW IS IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
NORTH OF 28N TO THE WEST OF 66W. A STATIONARY
FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N73W TO 30N76W AND 29N78W.
THE STATIONARY FRONT IS DISSIPATING FROM 29N78W
TO 26N79W...BETWEEN THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND
FLORIDA. HIGH CLOUDS ARE TO THE WEST OF THE LINE
THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N64W 28N67W 24N69W...AND
TO THE NORTH OF 24N BETWEEN 69W AND FLORIDA.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N62W TO 28N64W
TO 23N64W...AND TO 17N64W IN THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM A 28N38W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO
20N50W...TO A SECOND CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 20N60W...INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA NEAR 14N65W AND 13N66W. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 27N40W...TO 28N38W 26N36W 23N38W 20N42W
19N45W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS FROM 27N TO 32N BETWEEN 33W AND
41W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM TO
120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 26N34W 22N37W 20N46W
21N55W 26N58W 30N59W...AND TO THE NORTH OF 30N
BETWEEN 54W AND 63W.

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM A 1017 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
26N25W TO 16N27W TO 10N29W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N40W. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND 10 TO 14 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS
TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE 31N36W 26N50W. EXPECT
ALSO WIND SPEEDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND 10 FOOT
SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 23N TO THE EAST OF
54W. A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT IS ALONG 31N75W
26N79W. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 TO 11 FEET.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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