[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 162330
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE APR 16 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2245 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SENEGAL NEAR 12N17W TO
6N18W 4N22W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS ALONG 4N22W TO 2N30W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 19W-22W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-4N BETWEEN 26W-33W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS ARE ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AROUND
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 87W. SOME UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS STREAMING OVER THE NW GULF AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF
THE UPPER RIDGE. ONLY A FEW SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER COASTAL
MISSISSIPPI WITH SOME HEAVY STORMS OVER SW FLORIDA. AT THE
SURFACE...BROAD RIDGING EXTENDS FROM A HIGH CENTER OVER THE NW
ATLC PROVIDING EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS RANGING FROM 10-20 KT.
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED EXCEPT A POSSIBLE INCREASE IN WIND
SPEED ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO
MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATE THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ALSO COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN CENTERED IN THE SW PORTION NEAR 13N80W. DRY AIR ALOFT
ALSO SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
THROUGHOUT. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE POPPED UP
ALONG THE SOUTHERN COASTS OF CUBA...HISPANIOLA...AND ACROSS MUCH
OF PUERTO RICO. MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY IS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL AREA OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE PRESENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. TRADEWIND
FLOW OF 15-20 KT BLOWS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN REACHING 25 KT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE EAST IS
SUPPORTING A PAIR OF 1019 MB SURFACE LOWS NEAR 30N75W AND
30N67W. THE LOWS ARE CONNECTED BY A STATIONARY FRONT. A COLD
FRONT CONTINUES FROM THE WESTWARD LOW TO NEAR 27N80W. A COLD
FRONT ALSO CONTINUES EAST OF THE EASTWARD LOW CONNECTING INTO A
DEEP LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLC. THE COLD
FRONT EXTENDS ALONG 30N65W 28N51W 32N37W CONTINUING OUT OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COLD FRONT
BOUNDARY EAST OF THE TWO LOW CENTERS. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS ALSO
SE OF THE EASTWARD LOW FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 60W-67W. NO SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS NEAR THE WESTWARD LOW. BOTH LOW CENTERS ARE EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
GRADUALLY DISSIPATES AS WELL. AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS NEAR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 14N-20N
BETWEEN 58W-62W ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE PRESENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE
REMAINDER OF THE EAST ATLC IS COVERED BY WEAK SURFACE RIDGING
AROUND A PAIR OF 1021 MB SURFACE HIGHS NEAR 27N43W AND 29N31W.
BROAD UPPER RIDGING ALONG 17W SUPPORTS THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE. THESE HIGH CENTERS WILL DISSIPATE AS THE COLD FRONT TO
THE WEST MOVES EAST.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON


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