[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161759
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE APR 16 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL BORDER
OF SIERRA LEONE AND LIBERIA NEAR 7N11W TO 6N13W.
THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N13W TO 5N18W AND 2N22W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 7N BETWEEN 10W
AND 36W. NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN
6W AND 10W...ACROSS PARTS OF THE IVORY COAST AND
LIBERIA INTO THE COASTAL WATERS OF LIBERIA.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG
90W TO THE NORTH OF 21N. COMPARATIVELY DRIER
AIR IN SUBSIDENCE SHOWS UP IN THE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY TO THE EAST OF 90W.

HIGH CLOUDS ARE STREAMING FROM INTERIOR MEXICO
NORTHEASTWARD. THEY CROSS THE ENTIRE TEXAS GULF
COASTAL PLAINS INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THE HIGH
CLOUDS ARE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD WITH THE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS
ACCOMPANY THE HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS. LOW CLOUD
CEILINGS ALSO ARE REPORTED AT THE ICAO STATIONS
KBBF AND KGVX...THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORMS THAT
ARE OFF THE TEXAS COAST. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS
ALSO COVER THE U.S.A. GULF COASTAL PLAINS FROM
TEXAS TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. SCATTERED LOW
CLOUDS COVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE WEST
OF 86W. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER FLORIDA FROM
SARASOTA TO NAPLES. FAIR SKIES COVER THE
FLORIDA KEYS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE
TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...

VISIBILITIES OF 3 MILES OR LOWER ARE AT THE
ICAO STATIONS KGUL AND KMYT.
LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE AT THE ICAO STATIONS
KBBF...KGVX...KGBK...KSPR...AND KHQI.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR
THE SOUTHEASTERLY 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT
SEA HEIGHTS FROM 19N TO 27N BETWEEN 90W AND 95W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
9N69W IN NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA...ACROSS NORTHERN
COLOMBIA...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 12N77W...
TO 15N82W...TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THIS
RIDGE IS NOT IN PHASE WITH THE GULF OF MEXICO
90W RIDGE.

THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW HAS BEEN PUSHING HIGH
CLOUDS FROM SOUTH AMERICA AND CENTRAL AMERICA INTO
THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE HIGH CLOUDS HAVE BEEN
REACHING THE GREATER ANTILLES AND THE NORTHEASTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA.

ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS
PARTS OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ADJACENT
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 14N TO 20N BETWEEN 59W AND 63W
FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AND FROM 20N TO 25N BETWEEN 59W AND 68W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN ONLY.

THE TOTAL PRECIPITATION FOR CURACAO FOR THE
24-HOUR TIME PERIOD ENDING AT 16/1200 UTC IS
0.46 OF AN INCH...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERTATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE...MIATPTPAN.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N76W IN COLOMBIA...
BEYOND 8N82W IN PANAMA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG FROM COLOMBIA INTO EASTERN
PANAMA FROM 8N TO 9N BETWEEN 77W AND 79W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT THE NORTHEAST TO EAST 20 TO 25 KNOT
WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 9 FEET FROM 11N
TO 13.5N BETWEEN 70W AND 76W. ALSO EXPECT EAST
TO SOUTHEAST 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS
REACHING 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 19N TO THE WEST
OF 85W INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH 32N61W TO 25N64W. A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDS TO THE EAST OF A 1017 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N74W...TO 30N70W AND
30N60W. A STATIONARY FRONT ALSO EXTENDS TO THE
WEST OF THE SAME 1017 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
TO 29N76W AND 28N81W IN FLORIDA. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS FROM 27N TO 29N BETWEEN 66W AND 70W. BROKEN
TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION ARE FROM 23N TO 27N BETWEEN 58W
AND 66W...AND ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 30N
TO THE WEST OF 30W. THE TOTAL PRECIPITATION
FOR BERMUDA FOR THE 24-HOUR TIME PERIOD ENDING
AT 16/1200 UTC IS 0.23 OF AN INCH...ACCORDING
TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERTATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLE...MIATPTPAN.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH 32N24W TO 26N32W AND 26N50W. THE TROUGH
CONTINUES FROM 26N50W TO 22N51W...16N52W AND
TO 10N53W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 15N
TO 26N BETWEEN 30W AND 54W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N24W...
TO A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
28N32W...TO A SECOND 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 26N52W...TO 26N67W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS
AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 9 FEET...FROM 16N TO 25N
TO THE EAST OF 45W. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS
OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 9 FEET TO THE
NORTH OF 29N TO THE EAST OF 50W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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