[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131035
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT APR 13 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 12N16W CONTINUING ALONG 3N19W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR
NEAR 24W. THE ITCZ IS COMPLETELY S OF THE EQUATOR. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM S OF THE
EQUATOR TO INLAND OVER SW AFRICA E OF 8W TO ACROSS THE PRIME
MERIDIAN AND WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM 2N23W TO THE COAST OF
LIBERIA NEAR 6N10W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
ARE FROM 3N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 26W-34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE GULF AT 13/0900 UTC ACROSS FLORIDA
BETWEEN MELBOURNE AND FORT MYERS THEN ALONG 25N83W TO INLAND
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N88W WHERE IT BECOMES
STATIONARY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM W AND 30 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF
25N. THE UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT IS N OF 32N. A
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS W OF THE FRONT WITH CLEARING SKIES OVER
THE NW GULF. EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW OVER THE SW GULF IS BANKING
LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 25N W OF 88W.
COLD FRONT WILL STALL AND BEGIN TO DRIFT BACK TOWARDS THE N GULF
SAT AND SUN WHILE WEAKENING. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST WED NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER
COLOMBIA WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS E CUBA/WINDWARD
PASSAGE INTO THE W ATLC. THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLC CLIPS THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 63W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO INDICATE MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE
ENTIRE BASIN. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 69W-75W
INCLUDING HISPANIOLA AND WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE S COAST OF CUBA
BETWEEN CABO CRUZ AND CIENFUEGOS. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM 22N65W ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO 16N63W. THE TRADE WINDS
ARE USHERING IN SOME ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS OVER THE SE
CARIBBEAN S OF 14N E OF 69W TO OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS LEAVING
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AGAIN
THIS MORNING. ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG
TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND GULF OF HONDURAS
THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH GENERALLY MODERATE WINDS ELSEWHERE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLC AT 13/0900 UTC THROUGH
32N78W TO ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
MELBOURNE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
AND WITHIN 90 NM W OF THE FRONT. THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER
COLOMBIA EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS N ACROSS E CUBA/WINDWARD PASSAGE
TO BEYOND 32N70W COVERING THE W ATLC W OF 60W. THIS UPPER RIDGE
IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 28N BETWEEN 75W-79W. A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC
WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N35W ALONG 23N54W THEN S TO
10N57W INCLUDING THE FAR E CARIBBEAN. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 22N65W THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS INTO THE
CARIBBEAN TO NEAR 16N63W. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH IS TO THE W OF
THE SURFACE TROUGH GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 17N58W TO
21N66W. A BROAD E/W UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE
TROPICAL ATLC AND MOST OF THE E ATLC AND IS ANCHORED NEAR
10N24W. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC BASIN ANCHORED BY
A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 29N54W. THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM
32N74W TO NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL BY THIS EVENING THEN STALL FROM
32N61W TO NEAR JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA BY LATE SUN BEFORE BECOMING
DIFFUSE INTO MON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD N OF THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT MAINTAINING GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS
OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW

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