[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130539
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT APR 13 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 9N13W CONTINUING ALONG 4N17W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR
NEAR 24W. THE ITCZ IS COMPLETELY S OF THE EQUATOR. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30/45 NM OF LINE FROM 4N16W
TO THE COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 6N11W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 23W-
30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE GULF ACROSS FLORIDA BETWEEN JACKSONVILLE
TO JUST N OF TAMPA THEN ALONG 25N85W TO INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA NEAR 21N88W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 120 NM BOTH SIDES OF THE FRONT N OF 23N. THE UPPER
TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT IS N OF 32N. A WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE IS W OF THE FRONT WITH CLEARING SKIES OVER THE NW GULF.
EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW OVER THE SW GULF IS BANKING LOW CLOUDS
WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 23N W OF 89W. COLD FRONT
WILL STALL AND BEGIN TO DRIFT BACK TOWARDS THE N GULF SAT AND
SUN WHILE WEAKENING. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF
THE TEXAS COAST WED NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER
COLOMBIA WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS E CUBA INTO THE W
ATLC. THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC CLIPS THE E
CARIBBEAN E OF 65W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE
STRONG SUBSIDENCE REMAINS OVER THE ENTIRE BASIN EXCEPT OVER THE
FAR NW CARIBBEAN. AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER CUBA AND
HAITI ARE WINDING DOWN WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAINING OVER
HAITI/GULF OF GONAVE AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE S COAST OF CUBA
BETWEEN CABO CRUZ TO TUNAS DE ZAZA. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 21N61W ACROSS LEEWARD ISLANDS TO 16N62W. THE TRADE
WINDS ARE USHERING IN SOME ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN S OF 16N E OF 64W TO OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES LEAVING
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AGAIN
TONIGHT. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG
TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND GULF OF HONDURAS
THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH GENERALLY MODERATE WINDS ELSEWHERE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA TO
JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA THEN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE UPPER
RIDGE ANCHORED OVER COLOMBIA EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS N ACROSS E
CUBA TO BEYOND 32N74W COVERING THE W ATLC W OF 65W. THIS UPPER
RIDGE IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 28N W OF 77W TO THE COLD
FRONT. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC
INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N41W
ALONG 25N55W THEN S TO 11N62W INCLUDING THE E CARIBBEAN. A BROAD
E/W UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE TROPICAL ATLC AND
MOST OF THE E ATLC AND IS ANCHORED NEAR 10N26W. A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 21N61W ACROSS LEEWARD ISLANDS INTO THE
CARIBBEAN TO NEAR 16N62W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE
ATLC BASIN WITH A 1024 MB HIGH E-SE OF BERMUDA NEAR 31N61W AND A
1021 MB HIGH NE OF THE MERIDA ISLANDS. THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH
FROM 32N75W TO NEAR WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA SAT AND FROM 32N7OW
TO NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL SUN MORNING THEN WILL DRIFT BACK TOWARDS
THE N WHILE WEAKENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT
SUN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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