[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091038
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE APR 09 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 10N14W CONTINUING ALONG 6N15W TO 3N19W WHERE THE ITCZ
BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 1N26W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 34W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 4N TO S OF THE EQUATOR E OF 5W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION DOT THE AREA WITHIN
120/150 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ BETWEEN 15W-34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE W ATLC
WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 83W FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN TO OVER
THE E CONUS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MOIST UPPER AIR
COVERS THE GULF EXCEPT THE FAR NW GULF WITH SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE
WITHIN N OF 25N BETWEEN 86W-94W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER
OF THE GULF WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS MORNING. A SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS NE FLORIDA TO ALONG THE N GULF
COAST TO NEAR THE LOUISIANA/TEXAS BORDER. SURFACE RIDGE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH WED WEAKENING LATE WED AS THE NEXT COLD
FRONT APPROACHES. THE FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW GULF WED NIGHT
REACHING FROM MOBILE BAY TO W BAY OF CAMPECHE THU EVENING FROM
NEAR TAMPA BAY TO TAMPICO MEXICO FRI EVENING THEN STALLING FROM
NEAR FORT MYERS FLORIDA TO THE NE MEXICAN COAST SAT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER COLOMBIA.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG SUBSIDENCE REMAINS OVER THE
ENTIRE BASIN. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE
S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BANKING LOW CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS
INLAND AND WITHIN 45 NM ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA AND COSTA
RICA. EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE USHERING IN SOME ISOLATED LOW
LEVEL SHOWERS OVER THE N CARIBBEAN N OF A LINE FROM THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS NEAR 13N61W 17N72W TO 18N80W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF
THE CARIBBEAN UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. FRESH TO
STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL EXPAND TO
COVER THE ENTIRE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TONIGHT THROUGH SAT AS A
SURFACE RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE W ATLC. OTHERWISE MAINLY
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL EXCEPT IN THE
GULF OF HONDURAS WHERE FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS WILL SET
UP EACH NIGHT THROUGH SAT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC
W OF 67W. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC
INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 23N BETWEEN 45W-67W SUPPORTING A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N43W ALONG
27N50W TO 24N57W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG 23N62W
THROUGH THE BAHAMA ISLANDS TO NEAR 22N74W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 45/60 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES
THE W ATLC NW OF THE ABOVE FRONT AND IS ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB
HIGH W OF BERMUDA NEAR 33N67W AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS
NE FLORIDA TO OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF THE ABOVE FRONT ANCHORED
BY A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 29N30W. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE E WHILE THE STATIONARY PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL DRIFT TO
THE N WHILE WEAKENING THROUGH WED THEN DISSIPATING ON THU. W
ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRI. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NW PORTION LATE FRI SLOWLY
MOVING EASTWARD N OF 27N THROUGH SAT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW

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