[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090513
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE APR 09 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 9N13W CONTINUING TO 3N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 23W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N TO S OF THE
EQUATOR E OF 5W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION DOT THE AREA FROM 3N TO S OF THE EQUATOR
BETWEEN 19W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF TONIGHT WITH THE AXIS
EXTENDING ALONG 85W FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN TO OVER THE E CONUS.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MOIST UPPER AIR HAS MOVED ACROSS
THE BASIN. HOWEVER THE LOWER LEVELS REMAIN RATHER DRY TONIGHT.
THE EXCEPTION IS LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS
INLAND AND WITHIN 45 NM ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS AND NE MEXICO
BETWEEN THE LOUISIANA BORDER AND TAMPICO MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS NE FLORIDA TO ALONG THE N GULF
COAST TO THE LOUISIANA/TEXAS BORDER. THIS IS GIVING THE GULF
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH WED THEN WEAKENING LATE WED AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. THE FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW GULF WED NIGHT REACHING
FROM NEAR VERMILION BAY LOUISIANA TO TUXPAN MEXICO THU FROM THE
BIG BEND AREA OF FLORIDA TO THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE FRI THEN
STALLING FROM NEAR FORT MYERS FLORIDA TO THE W CENTRAL GULF SAT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER COLOMBIA.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE
ENTIRE BASIN. REMNANT AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA...
CUBA...AND JAMAICA HAVE DRIFTED SW INTO THE CARIBBEAN WATERS
WITHIN 60/90 NM ALONG THE COASTLINES. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE
WINDS ACROSS THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ARE BANKING LOW CLOUDS WITH
EMBEDDED SHOWERS INLAND AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF
PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE USHERING IN SOME
ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN FROM 13N-18N E
OF 66W TO ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF
THE CARIBBEAN UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. THE FRESH TO
STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL EXPAND TO
COVER THE ENTIRE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TONIGHT THROUGH SAT AS A
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE W ATLC. OTHERWISE MAINLY MODERATE
TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL EXCEPT IN THE GULF OF
HONDURAS WHERE FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS WILL SET UP EACH
NIGHT THROUGH SAT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE FAR W
ATLC W OF 75W. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W
ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 22N BETWEEN 45W-75W SUPPORTING A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N46W TO
25N56W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG 22N63W THROUGH THE
BAHAMA ISLANDS TO THE N COAST OF CUBA NEAR 21N76W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60/95 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS WITHIN 45 NM S OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE
DOMINATES THE W ATLC NW OF THE ABOVE FRONT AND IS ANCHORED W OF
BERMUDA NEAR 32N67W AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS NE FLORIDA
TO OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF THE ABOVE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB
HIGH NEAR 30N32W. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE W WHILE
THE STATIONARY PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT TO THE N
WHILE WEAKENING FURTHER THROUGH TUE THEN DISSIPATING ON WED. W
ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRI. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT MAY ENTER THE NW PORTION LATE FRI SLOWLY MOVING
EASTWARD N OF 27N THROUGH SAT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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