[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021033
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE APR 02 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 12N16W AND CONTINUES ALONG 6N16W 3N21W TO 2N26W WHERE
THE ITCZ EXTENDS ALONG 1N30W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 34W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 6N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 4W-16W AND FROM 4N TO THE
EQUATOR BETWEEN 16W-31W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS MOVING TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH
THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO OVER SE CONUS
NEAR THE LOUISIANA/TEXAS BORDER. AN UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING OUT
OF THE GULF INTO THE W ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT
02/0900 UTC EXTENDS ACROSS NE FLORIDA INTO THE GULF N OF CEDAR
KEY WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO 29N87W. THE NE GULF REMAINS UNDER
STRONG SUBSIDENCE THUS NO SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT. A WEAKENING 1017 MB HIGH IS S OF THE FRONT OFF THE COAST
OF FLORIDA NEAR 26N83W. THE CONFLUENCE OF EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW
AND WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE W GULF IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
FROM 23N-29N W OF 92W. FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND W GULF TONIGHT AND WED IN RESPONSE TO
DEEPENING TROUGH IN NE MEXICO. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL START TO
DEVELOP IN THE NW GULF WED NIGHT THEN DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NE TO
NEAR PENSACOLA FLORIDA BY THU NIGHT. THE LOW WILL DRAG A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE GULF THU AND FRI.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BENIGN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS
EXTENDING FROM E CUBA TO OVER NW VENEZUELA. RELATIVE TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS BETWEEN THE LOWER PRESSURE OF SOUTH
AMERICA AND THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC PRODUCING FRESH TO
STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN.
ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN S
OF 16N E OF 66W ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES LEAVING THE REMAINDER
OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. FRESH TO
STRONG SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS TONIGHT
THROUGH THU. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL FRI THEN WEAKEN OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SAT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO NORTH
CAROLINA THEN S-SE OVER THE W ATLC TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION AT 02/0900 UTC
NEAR 32N74W ACROSS FLORIDA BETWEEN NEAR SAINT AUGUSTINE
CONTINUING INTO THE NE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM SE OF THE FRONT E OF
78W. A SURFACE TROUGH PRECEDES THE FRONT ENTERING THE REGION
NEAR 32N69W TO 26N75W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 75/90 NM OF LINE FROM 23N74W TO 28N68W WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 28N BETWEEN 65W-
70W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR E ATLC N OF 30N SUPPORTING
A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT THAT DRAPES INTO THE REGION NEAR 32N23W
ALONG 27N29W TO 24N38W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF
THE ATLC WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE ABOVE
FRONT AND ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH NEAR 32N50W. A LARGE UPPER
RIDGE COVERS A MAJOR PORTION OF THE ATLC ANCHORED INLAND OVER
MAURITANIA AFRICA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS W ATLC
THROUGH WED WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FURTHER SOUTH TO THE
E BAHAMAS. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE E AND EXTEND THROUGH 32N58W TO
21N70W WED THEN INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC THU. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WED NIGHT AND THU
INCREASING WINDS ACROSS W ATLC BY THU.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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