[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020803
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE APR 02 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 6N11W AND CONTINUES ALONG 2N15W 0N25W TO 0N29W WHERE
THE ITCZ EXTENDS ALONG 1N38W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 44W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 9W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS MOVING OVER THE W GULF WITH THE AXIS
EXTENDING FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO INLAND OVER TEXAS AND THE
CENTRAL PLAIN STATES. AN UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE E
GULF INTO THE W ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 02/0300 UTC
EXTENDS ACROSS NE FLORIDA INTO THE GULF NEAR PANAMA CITY TO THE
N CHANDELEUR ISLANDS OF LOUISIANA. THE NE GULF IS UNDER STRONG
SUBSIDENCE THUS NO SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.
A WEAK 1018 MB HIGH IS S OF THE FRONT NEAR 27N86W. THE
CONFLUENCE OF EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW AND WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COULD PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM 22N-26N W OF 86W. FRESH TO STRONG SE
WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND W GULF TUE NIGHT AND
WED IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG 100W.
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE NW GULF LATE
WED AND MOVE NE TO NEAR PENSACOLA LATE THU. THE LOW WILL THEN
ACCELERATE NE OF THE AREA FRI WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
SHIFTING SE OF THE GULF FRI NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BENIGN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH
THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM E CUBA TO OVER COLOMBIA. RELATIVE TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS BETWEEN THE LOWER PRESSURE OF SOUTH
AMERICA AND THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC PRODUCING FRESH TO
STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND
TO NEAR GALE FORCE ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. ISOLATED LOW
LEVEL SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 17N
BETWEEN 70W AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. THE TRADE WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH EARLY TUE WITH STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS
NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND THEN WILL DIMINISH WED AS THE W
ATLC SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES E INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE W
ATLC WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS OFF THE E COAST OF FLORIDA TO
THE ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION AT 02/0300 UTC
NEAR 32N79W ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR THE GEORGIA BORDER CONTINUING
INTO THE N GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH PRECEDES THE FRONT
ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 32N75W TO THE OFF THE FLORIDA COAST
NEAR VERO BEACH. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF THE
25N W OF 69W TO THE SURFACE TROUGH. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE
E ATLC N OF 30N SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT DRAPES INTO THE
REGION NEAR 32N30W ALONG 27N41W TO 24N55W. A SURFACE RIDGE
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE
IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE ABOVE FRONT AND ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB
HIGH NEAR 32N52W. A LARGE UPPER RIDGE COVERS A MAJOR PORTION OF
THE ATLC ANCHORED ALONG THE COAST OF MAURITANIA AFRICA. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE E ACROSS THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC
WED. SE WINDS WILL INCREASE W OF 75W THU AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM INTENSIFIES IN THE E GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL SHIFT N
OF THE FORECAST AREA FRI WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE
W ATLC. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 32N65W TO E CUBA SAT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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