[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221105
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT SEP 22 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

NONE.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC EXTENDS FROM
18N42W TO 11N46W MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS ALONG THE TRAILING
EDGE OF A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS MOSTLY W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 44W-51W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE SE GULF OF MEXICO AT 24N87W TO
GUATEMALA AT 16N89W MOVING W 15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
BROAD AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE THAT COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN...
YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND E GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN
83W-86W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 15N-23N BETWEEN
83W-91W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF SENEGAL AT 14N17W
TO 7N25W TO 7N34W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N34W TO 8N40W TO
9N50W TO THE COAST OF GUYANA AT 7N59W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA
FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 15W-19W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 10W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0900 UTC...THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER
THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. SEE ABOVE. FURTHER E...S FLORIDA AND THE
SE GULF HAS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN
80W-85W. FURTHER W... A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE SW GULF AND
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 23N95W TO 18N94W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
S OF 22N BETWEEN 90W-98W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER
THE W GULF W OF 88W AND N OF 22N. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EXPECT...MORE
CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA... AND THE SOUTHERN
GULF OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER THE W CARIBBEAN N OF 11N
BETWEEN 80W-83W. A 1006 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR
8N74W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 70W-76W. A MONSOON
TROUGH EXTENDS W FROM THE LOW TO PANAMA AND COSTA RICA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 76W-86W. ELSEWHERE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 65W. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED S OF
CUBA NEAR 22N81W. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 13N62W ENHANCING THE SHOWERS. EXPECT OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONTINUED PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TROPICAL WAVE AND THE MONSOON TROUGH.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
POST-TROPICAL STORM NADINE IS CENTERED NEAR 32N27W AT 22/0600
UTC OR ABOUT 356 NM S OF THE AZORES MOVING SSE AT 11 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED REMAIN AT STORM FORCE WITH 50 KT GUSTING TO 60 KT.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 29N-32N BETWEEN
26W-28W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE
N BAHAMAS FROM 27N78W TO 23N79W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 76W-80W N OF 23N. A WEAK 1017 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR
29N70W. A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED JUST N OF THE AREA AT 34N61W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE LOW FROM 30N-36N
BETWEEN 55W-60W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 27N57W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER IS
PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 27N-30N
BETWEEN 51W-54W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONTINUED
PRECIPITATION OVER THE W ATLANTIC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA








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