[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 220543
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT SEP 22 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

SUBTROPICAL STORM NADINE IS CENTERED NEAR 31.9N 26.6W AT
22/0300 UTC OR ABOUT 365 NM S OF THE AZORES MOVING SSE AT 11 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. SEE LATEST NHC
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT4/
WTNT34 AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS SW OF THE CENTER FROM 31N-32N BETWEEN 28W-30W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC EXTENDS FROM
18N40W TO 11N43W MOVING W 15 KT. WAVE IS ALONG THE TRAILING EDGE
OF A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS MOSTLY W
OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 41W-49W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 21N65W THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE TO
THE E CARIBBEAN AT 14N69W MOVING W 20-25 KT. THE WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A WEAK SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
30 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE SE GULF OF MEXICO AT 24N86W TO
THE GULF OF HONDURAS AT 17N87W MOVING W 15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE THAT COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN
AND E GULF OF MEXICO. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 15N-24N BETWEEN 83W-89W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF SENEGAL AT 14N17W
TO 9N24W TO 8N33W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N33W TO 8N40W TO
9N50W TO THE COAST OF GUYANA AT 7N59W. CLUSTERS WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM
11N-19N BETWEEN 14W-18W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-8N
BETWEEN 20W-28W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0300 UTC...THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER
THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. SEE ABOVE. FURTHER E...FLORIDA AND THE E
GULF HAS WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 24N E OF 85W.
FURTHER W... A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W GULF AND THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE FROM 23N95W TO 18N93W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE S OF 20N
BETWEEN 90W-98W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE W
GULF W OF 90W AND N OF 21N. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EXPECT...MORE CONVECTION OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA... AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. THE
TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN HAS THE MOST CONVECTION BY
FAR. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN N OF 12N BETWEEN 80W-83W. A 1005 MB LOW IS CENTERED
OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 9N74W. A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W FROM THE
LOW TO PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 73W-86W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER HAITI FROM
17N-19N BETWEEN 72W-74W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FURTHER E OVER
THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 65W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER
LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED S OF CUBA NEAR 22N81W. A SMALL UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 13N62W
ENHANCING THE SHOWERS. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
CONTINUED PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TWO TROPICAL WAVES
AND THE MONSOON TROUGH.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND THE BAHAMAS FROM
28N77W TO 23N79W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS W OF
76W. A WEAK 1017 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 28N70W. A 1009 MB LOW
IS CENTERED JUST N OF THE AREA AT 33N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS E OF THE LOW FROM 30N-36N BETWEEN 55W-60W. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 29N56W. UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 22N-29N BETWEEN 51W-55W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS FOR CONTINUED PRECIPITATION OVER THE W ATLANTIC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA








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