[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061152
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT OCT 06 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDS FROM 17N24W TO
11N23W MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LOW
AMPLITUDE SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. HOWEVER THERE IS NO ASSOCIATED
SHOWERS/CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE JUST W OF THE LESSER ANTILLES EXTENDS FROM 15N63W
TO 10N64W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD
AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. WAVE IS AT THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 12N TO INLAND OVER VENEZUELA BETWEEN
60W-66W INCLUDING TRINIDAD.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 15N75W TO
9N76W MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF
DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 14N
TO INLAND OVER COLOMBIA BETWEEN 74W-81W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 11N15W S OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 10N21W CONTINUING
ALONG 14N35W TO 11N44W. THE ITCZ IS CURRENTLY NOT DISCERNIBLE IN
THE ATLC BASIN. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
5N-9N BETWEEN 22W-26W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 6W-21W AND FROM 7N-11N
BETWEEN 27W-38W. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND AND WITHIN
60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF GUINEA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CONUS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAIN
STATES TO OVER THE GREAT LAKES NARROWING AS IT ENTERS THE GULF
OF MEXICO OVER ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI ALONG 26N93W TO NEAR VERACRUZ
MEXICO. AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED INLAND OVER HONDURAS EXTENDS A
RIDGE AXIS ACROSS W CUBA AND THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND
CONTINUING TO DRAW TROPICAL MOISTURE N OVER THE E GULF OF
MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE NE GULF EXTENDING ALONG 84W
FROM 26N-29N WITH A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IN THE SW GULF
EXTENDING FROM 24N94W THROUGH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO OVER S
MEXICO NEAR 18N93W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
S OF 29N E OF 86W TO OVER FLORIDA AND TO THE COAST OF CUBA AND
WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM 24N96W ALONG 22N92W TO OVER S
MEXICO NEAR 18N95W. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE GULF ANCHORED
BY A PAIR OF 1018 MB HIGHS LOCATED OVER W GEORGIA AND SE NORTH
CAROLINA. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER DRY AIR AND STRONG
SUBSIDENCE KEEPING THE NW GULF WITH FAIR WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES
THIS MORNING. THE SW GULF SURFACE TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER REGION
THROUGH LATE SAT WHEN A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF TEXAS
COAST. FRONT WILL REACH FROM FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO SOUTHERN TEXAS
EARLY SUN AND FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO SOUTHERN TEXAS EARLY MON
WHERE IT STALLS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED INLAND OVER HONDURAS EXTENDING A
RIDGE AXIS N ACROSS W CUBA AND COVERING THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF
15N W OF 77W. NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE
FROM 17N71W ALONG 19N78W TO 22N82W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF S HAITI
AND N JAMAICA. ABUNDANCE OF DEEP MOISTURE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN
MAINLY S OF 15N AND N OF 15N W OF 81W SUPPORTING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH BOTH TROPICAL
WAVES AND N OF 15N BETWEEN 82W-85W. CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL
WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE W CARIBBEAN SAT AND SUN. TROPICAL
WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
SUN AND MON THEN THE W CARIBBEAN TUE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED INLAND OVER HONDURAS EXTENDS A RIDGE
AXIS ACROSS CUBA AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC ALONG
25N80W TO 30N77W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
EXTEND FROM ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE FAR W ATLC N OF 28N W OF
77W. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB
HIGH OVER SE NORTH CAROLINA. AN UPPER LOW IS NE OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS NEAR 20N59W COVERING THE AREA FROM 15N-26N BETWEEN
53W-66W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 22N56W
THROUGH A NEWLY FORMED 1009 MB LOW NEAR 20N59W TO 18N60W
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 15N-23N
BETWEEN 53W-61W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE W ALONG THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER LOW EXTENDING FROM 26N62W 23N65W TO
21N66W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH N OF 25N AND WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE
FROM 22N66W TO 26N71W. A LARGE UPPER LOW COVERS THE NE ATLC N OF
25N BETWEEN 25W-45W AND SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE
E ATLC NEAR 32N29W CONTINUING ALONG 25N39W 24N47W TO 26N51W WITH
A SURFACE TROUGH...REMNANTS OF OSCAR...EXTENDING FROM 27N29W TO
21N35W. BROAD AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS COVERS THE AREA N OF 24N
TO BEYOND 32N E OF THE FRONT TO 22W AS REPORTED BY METEO FRANCE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM SE OF
THE FRONT E OF 40W WITH A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 27N29W TO
BEYOND 32N25W. THE WESTERN SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECASTED TO
DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW AND MOVE W TO OVER THE BAHAMA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS LOW WILL THEN DISSIPATE BY SUN WITH THE TROUGH
CONTINUING TO DRIFT IN WESTWARD OVER THE BAHAMAS BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE 1009 MB LOW CURRENTLY NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE SAT INTO SUN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW




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