[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060606
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT OCT 06 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS SE OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDING FROM
16N22W TO 9N19W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
LOW AMPLITUDE SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. HOWEVER THERE IS NO ASSOCIATED
SHOWERS/CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE JUST W OF THE LESSER ANTILLES EXTENDS FROM 15N62W
TO 10N63W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD
AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. WAVE IS AT THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND OVER VENEZUELA TO OVER TRINIDAD AND
TOBAGO.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 15N73W TO
9N75W MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF
DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA IN TO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 12N16W S OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 9N21W ALONG 12N31W
TO 10N41W WHERE THE ITCZ EXTENDS TO 8N46W. SCATTERED MODERATE/
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 21W-24W AND FROM 8N-11N
BETWEEN 28W-31W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 42W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CONUS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAIN
STATES TO OVER THE GREAT LAKES NARROWING AS IT ENTERS THE GULF
OF MEXICO OVER LOUISIANA TO NEAR TUXPAN MEXICO. AN UPPER RIDGE
ANCHORED IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS W
CUBA AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE N OVER
THE E GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE NE GULF
EXTENDING ALONG 83W FROM 24N-29N WITH A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IN
THE SW GULF FROM 23N94W THROUGH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO OVER S
MEXICO NEAR 18N93W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
SW OF LINE FROM APALACHICOLA BAY TO 25N95W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF
FLORIDA...CUBA....AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 23N BETWEEN 90W-96W
INCLUDING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE
GULF ANCHORED BY A WEAK 1017 MB HIGH ALONG THE COAST OF
LOUISIANA NEAR VERMILION BAY AND SOMEWHAT STRONGER 1018 MB HIGH
OVER SOUTH CAROLINA. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER DRY AIR
AND SUBSIDENCE KEEPING THE NW GULF WITH FAIR WEATHER AND CLEAR
SKIES TONIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF
THROUGH SAT. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS
COAST SAT NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO
SOUTHERN TEXAS EARLY SUN THEN WILL STALL FROM N CENTRAL FLORIDA
TO SOUTHERN TEXAS MON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS EXTENDING A
RIDGE AXIS N ACROSS W CUBA AND COVERING THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF
15N W OF 77W. NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IS GENERATING
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90
NM ALONG THE S COAST OF CUBA BETWEEN 77W-82W. ABUNDANCE OF DEEP
MOISTURE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN MAINLY S OF 15N AND N OF 15N W OF
81W SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 15N
ACROSS THE BASIN AND W OF 83W. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOPED INLAND OVER HAITI HAVE MOVED INTO THE CARIBBEAN WATERS
WITHIN 30 NM ALONG THE S COAST AND IN THE GULF OF GONAVE. THE
ACTIVITY IN THE SW CARIBBEAN IS BEING ENHANCED BY THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE. CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE W CARIBBEAN SAT AND SUN. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E
CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SUN AND MON
THEN THE W CARIBBEAN TUE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS EXTENDS A RIDGE
AXIS ACROSS CUBA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE FAR W ATLC
FROM MELBOURNE FLORIDA TO BEYOND 32N78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND FROM ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE W
ATLC N OF 24N W OF 78W. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC
ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH OVER SOUTH CAROLINA. AN UPPER LOW IS
NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 20N60W COVERING THE AREA FROM
15N-26N BETWEEN 54W-65W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH N OF PUERTO
RICO AND ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER LOW FROM 26N62W
24N65W TO 21N66W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 14N54W ALONG 20N53W TO 22N59W...
WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH BETWEEN 23N-26N...AND FROM
22N-25N BETWEEN 66W-69W. A LARGE UPPER LOW COVERS THE NE ATLC N
OF 25N BETWEEN 25W-50W AND SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS
THE E ATLC NEAR 32N31W CONTINUING ALONG 24N44W TO 27N59W WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH...REMNANTS OF OSCAR...EXTENDS FROM 27N32W TO
22N35W. BROAD AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS COVERS THE AREA N OF 24N
TO BEYOND 32N E OF THE FRONT TO 22W AS REPORTED BY METEO FRANCE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E AND
S OF THE FRONT WITH A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM
25N31W TO BEYOND 32N27W. SURFACE TROUGH N OF PUERTO RICO IS
FORECASTED TO DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW AND MOVE W TO OVER THE
BAHAMA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE LOW WILL DISSIPATE BY SUN WITH
THE TROUGH CONTINUING TO DRIFT IN WESTWARD OVER THE BAHAMAS BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW




This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net