[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT44 KNHC 032033
TCDAT4

TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  85
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012
500 PM AST WED OCT 03 2012

NADINE HAS BECOME A TIGHT SWIRL DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 40 KNOTS...AND IF NO NEW DEEP
CONVECTIVE CELLS DEVELOP...AS ANTICIPATED...NADINE WILL DE DECLARED
A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THE
CYCLONE COULD STILL PRODUCE TROPICAL-STORM- OR GALE-FORCE WINDS AS
IT PASSES NEAR THE AZORES IN ABOUT 12 HOURS OR SO.

NADINE IS FULLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW AROUND A MUCH LARGER
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE...AND IT IS RUNNING NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 16
KT AHEAD OF A FAST-APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
NORTH IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...AND THEN POST-TROPICAL NADINE
SHOULD BECOME FULLY ABSORBED BY THE SAME LOW WITHIN WHICH IT IS
EMBEDDED.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/2100Z 36.1N  31.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  04/0600Z 38.0N  30.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  04/1800Z 43.0N  26.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  05/0600Z 46.5N  25.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  05/1800Z 48.0N  25.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  06/1800Z...ABSORBED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


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