[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251142
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN NOV 25 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N11W TO
03N19W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
03N19W TO 02N25W TO 05N46W TO 04N52W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-12N BETWEEN 20W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS MORNING
WITH A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE SW NORTH
ATLC AND INTO THE GULF ALONG 26N81W TO 24N86W WHERE IT BECOMES A
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT TO 24N95W THEN CURVING SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE EASTERN MEXICO COAST TO 19N96W. WHILE THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE DUE TO LACK OF SIGNIFICANT DYNAMICS
ALOFT...ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE FRONT W OF 84W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH
CENTERED OVER LOUISIANA THAT IS FORECAST TO SLIDE EASTWARD.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN NEAR
12N65W. MOSTLY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PREVAIL ALOFT AND AN OVERALL
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT IS OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED ALONG A
SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 18N72W TO
11N78W THAT CONTINUES TO PROVIDE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 210 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH
AXIS...INCLUDING HISPANIOLA AND PORTIONS OF PANAMA. OTHERWISE...
THE NW CARIBBEAN REMAINS UNDER FAIR CONDITIONS AS SURFACE
RIDGING EXTENDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE SE
CARIBBEAN S OF 14N BETWEEN 60W-70W CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS AS WEAK SURFACE
TROUGHING PROGRESSES WESTWARD.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 48N69W THAT EXTENDS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ALONG 40N65W TO 32N73W. THIS
TROUGHING SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC
WATERS FROM 32N65W TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 26N80W. WHILE A
LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH THE
FRONT...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE BOUNDARY AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD. STRONGER NORTHERLY
WINDS FOLLOW IN ITS WAKE WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO SLIDE
OFF THE SE CONUS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BRINGING OVERALL STABLE
CONDITIONS TO THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION. FARTHER EAST...AN
EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
PARENT LOW AND TROUGHING...SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM
32N46W TO 25N52W WHERE IT BECOMES A SURFACE TROUGH TO 18N63W.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND
SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO PROVIDE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS
WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. FINALLY...A MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 33N18W OVER PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN ATLC THAT SUPPORTS A 1000 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 33N18W. A
COLD FRONT EXTENDS S-SW FROM THE LOW TO 32N17W TO 27N20W TO
25N28W AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS N
OF 28N BETWEEN 13W AND THE FRONT...INCLUDING THE MADEIRA ISLANDS
AND PORTIONS OF THE CANARY ISLANDS THIS MORNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net