[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250545
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN NOV 25 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N12W TO
03N15W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
03N15W TO 02N22W TO 04N39W TO 02N50W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 07N-13N BETWEEN 19W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS EVENING
WITH A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
SEABOARD THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE SW NORTH
ATLC AND INTO THE GULF ALONG 26N82W TO 24N86W TO 25N93W TO
22N96W. WHILE THE DYNAMICS ALOFT ARE CONTINUING TO WEAKEN...THE
FRONT EXHIBITS NO DEEP CONVECTION AT THIS TIME HOWEVER A
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT E OF 93W...AND S OF 26N W OF 93W. THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A
1025 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER WEST-CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI THAT IS
FORECAST TO SLIDE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE
FRONT GRADUALLY BECOMES MORE DIFFUSE AND DISSIPATES.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN NEAR
12N63W. MOSTLY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PREVAIL ALOFT AND AN OVERALL
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT IS OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED ALONG A
LINE FROM HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N71W TO 09N82W THAT CONTINUES TO
PROVIDE FOCUS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS
WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE...INCLUDING HISPANIOLA AND
PORTIONS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. OTHERWISE...THE NW CARIBBEAN
REMAINS UNDER FAIR CONDITIONS AS SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS INTO
THE REGION FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE SE CARIBBEAN S OF 14N
BETWEEN 60W-68W CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTMS AS WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING PROGRESSING
WESTWARD.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 48N72W THAT EXTENDS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ALONG 40N68W TO 32N73W. THIS
TROUGHING SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC
WATERS FROM 32N69W TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 27N80W. WHILE
DEEP CONVECTION IS AT A MINIMUM WITH THE FRONT...ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY
AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STRONGER
NORTHERLY WINDS FOLLOW IN ITS WAKE WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED
TO SLIDE OFF THE SE CONUS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BRINGING
OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS TO THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION. FARTHER
EAST...AN EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED PARENT LOW AND TROUGHING...SUPPORTS A DISSIPATING
COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N47W TO 19N62W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT CONTINUES TO PROVIDE
FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 26N BETWEEN 37W AND
THE FRONT...AND WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT S OF 26N.
FINALLY...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 34N21W
OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN ATLC THAT SUPPORTS A 1007 MB LOW
CENTERED NEAR 32N19W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S-SW FROM THE LOW TO
25N25W AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS N
OF 27N BETWEEN 10W AND THE FRONT...INCLUDING THE MADEIRA ISLANDS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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