[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111120
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN NOV 11 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 12N16W ALONG 8N18W TO 7N26W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES
ALONG 9N33W 10N38W 9N53W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 7N59W. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 60/75 NM OF
12N E OF 23W TO THE COAST OF W AFRICA AND WITHIN 60/75 NM OF
LINE FROM 5N12W TO 10N16W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
ITCZ BETWEEN 28W-54W AND WITHIN 175 NM OF LINE FROM 4N21W TO
14N25W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS AN AXIS FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION
ACROSS S MEXICO AND THE GULF TO OVER THE CONUS E OF THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DRY CONTINENTAL AIR REMAINS OVER THE FAR E
GULF WHILE TROPICAL MOISTURE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. A
SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH
OVER SOUTH CAROLINA. PATCHES OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS THE GULF. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW GULF MON MORNING
ACCOMPANIED BY VERY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS.
THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM MISSISSIPPI TO VERACRUZ MEXICO MON
NIGHT AND FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TUE
MORNING THEN BECOME STATIONARY FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE SW
GULF WED MORNING. THE FRONT WILL BECOME DIFFUSE ON THU.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN WITH
THE TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES TO OVER PANAMA
AND NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE W ATLC. FRESH TO STRONG NE TRADE WINDS
ARE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN USHERING IN SOME LOW LEVEL SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY S OF 17N
BETWEEN 80W-85W AND S OF 13N BETWEEN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND
69W. TRADE WINDS WILL DIMINISH MON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS. MODERATE NE WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE BASIN FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 60W AND EXTENDS S
ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES INTO THE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N49W TO
28N53W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG 23N60W TO OVER THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO 19N71W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED SE OF THE FRONT EXTENDING
FROM 22N60W TO OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO NEAR 15N62W WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE
FROM 23N57W TO 20N58W AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 18N59W TO
12N53W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE W ATLC W OF THE ABOVE
FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH OVER SOUTH CAROLINA. A CUT OFF
UPPER LOW IS IN THE E/CENTRAL ATLC CENTERED NEAR 25N38W WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S INTO THE TROPICS NEAR 17N35W SUPPORTING
A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 21N42W TO 14N44W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WELL TO THE E OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH FROM 18N-27N BETWEEN 30W-37W. A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE
DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC N OF 20N BETWEEN AFRICA AND
THE CENTRAL ATLC COLD FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH NEAR THE
AZORES. THE CENTRAL ATLC COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY LATER
TODAY BECOMING A SURFACE TROUGH BY MON NIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL
THEN DRIFT W THROUGH WED AND DISSIPATING THU.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW






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