[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 110527
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN NOV 11 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ IS ANALYZED ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR
12N16W ALONG 10N26W TO 14N38W THEN RESUMES NEAR 13N45W 10N54W TO
SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 9N61W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-17N BETWEEN 10W-24W
INCLUDING THE COAST OF W AFRICA...FROM 7N-20N BETWEEN 24W-32W...
AND FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 32W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE GULF EXTENDING FROM THE E PACIFIC
REGION ACROSS S MEXICO AND THE GULF TO OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. DRY CONTINENTAL AIR REMAINS OVER THE FAR E GULF WHILE
TROPICAL MOISTURE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. A SURFACE
RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH OFF THE
NORTH CAROLINA COAST AND A 1031 MB HIGH OFF THE NEW JERSEY
COAST. SCATTERED COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS THE
GULF. SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY
WINDS THROUGH SUN. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW
GULF MON MORNING ACCOMPANIED BY VERY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND
BUILDING SEAS. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM MISSISSIPPI TO
VERACRUZ MEXICO MON NIGHT FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE TUE MORNING BEFORE BECOMING STATIONARY FROM CENTRAL
FLORIDA TO THE SW GULF WED MORNING. THE FRONT WILL BECOME
DIFFUSE ON THU.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN WITH
THE TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES TO OVER PANAMA
AND NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE W ATLC. FRESH TO STRONG NE TRADE WINDS
ARE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN USHERING IN SOME LOW LEVEL SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY S OF 17N BETWEEN 76W-84W
AND S OF 14N BETWEEN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND 68W. TRADE WINDS
WILL DIMINISH MON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. MODERATE NE
WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE BASIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 60W AND EXTENDS S
ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES INTO THE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N50W
CONTINUING ALONG 28N54W TO 24N60W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO
OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO 18N71W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED SE OF THE FRONT
EXTENDING FROM 22N60W TO 16N59W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 23N55W TO 21N60W AND
WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 20N59W TO 12N53W. A SURFACE RIDGE
DOMINATES THE W ATLC W OF THE ABOVE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB
HIGH JUST OFF THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA AND A 1031 MB HIGH OFF
THE COAST OF NEW JERSEY. A CUT OFF UPPER LOW IS IN THE E/CENTRAL
ATLC CENTERED NEAR 24N39W WITH THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S INTO
THE TROPICS NEAR 15N36W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS
FROM 23N41W TO 15N42W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WELL TO THE E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM 17N-28N BETWEEN
30W-38W. A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE
ATLC N OF 20N BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE CENTRAL ATLC COLD FRONT
ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH ABOUT 150 NM SW OF THE AZORES. THE
CENTRAL ATLC COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY THEN WILL
DEGENERATE INTO A SHEAR LINE TONIGHT STALLING THROUGH SUN. A
TROUGH WILL THEN DEVELOP ALONG ITS AXIS DRIFTING W MON THROUGH
WED AND DISSIPATING THU.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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