[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061732
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE NOV 06 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 12N16W TO 10N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
TO 9N30W TO 6N40W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 3N51W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 20W-32W...AND FROM 6N-10N
BETWEEN 32W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A 1012 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE N FLORIDA
GULF COAST NEAR 29N83W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW TO THE
NORTH-CENTRAL GULF AT 26N90W TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AT 26N97W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM
OF THE FRONT. A WARM FROM EXTENDS NE FROM THE LOW...ACROSS N
FLORIDA TO 31N80W. A SQUALL LINE WITH SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALSO IN THE WARM SECTOR NEAR TAMPA FLORIDA FROM
28N91W TO 27N85W. 10-15 KT CYCLONIC WINDS ARE NOTED AROUND THE
LOW...AND 10-15 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE N OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
COLD FRONT. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SW GULF S
OF 21N W OF 94W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF. A 90-130 KT JETSTREAM WITH
CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE NE GULF AND
FLORIDA. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM S
FLORIDA TO N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO TAMPICO MEXICO WITH
RAIN AND SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT MORE RAIN AND SHOWERS OVER THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE S OF 20N. A GOOD AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION IS
EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN AREA OF ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 82W-88W DUE TO SURFACE CONFLUENCE
AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER PANAMA FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 76W-83W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM BELIZE TO
PANAMA. MORE SHOWERS ARE OVER JAMAICA...AND CENTRAL CUBA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS S OF 14N E
OF 70W. 15-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH
STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N70W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER
THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W....AND OVER THE N CARIBBEAN N OF 18N.
EXPECT PRE-FRONTAL SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN IN 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE
SW CARIBBEAN AND PANAMA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A 1011 MB LOW IS CENTERED IN THE W ATLANTIC
NEAR 32N74W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO 31N78W. A
WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO 31N80W. RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60
NM OF THE FRONTS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS N OF HISPANIOLA FROM
25N69W TO 20N72W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS MOSTLY E OF
THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 22N-25N BETWEEN 66W-70W. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC AND THE CANARY ISLANDS FROM 31N10W TO
28N20W TO 25N26W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THE
CANARY ISLANDS FROM 29N-33N BETWEEN 13W-16W. SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
60 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. IN THE TROPICS...AN AREA OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-17N BETWEEN 37W-40W.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W
ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 50W-80W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS
PRODUCING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WELL N OF PUERTO RICO
FROM 25N-32N BETWEEN 58W-70W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ALSO
CENTERED NEAR 31N47W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE LOW IS
PRODUCING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 24N-32N BETWEEN
40W-41W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE LOW OVER THE W ATLANTIC TO
MOVE TO 37N72W AND PRODUCE INCLEMENT WEATHER OVER THE EASTERN
SEA BOARD. ALSO EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO REMAIN OVER THE W
ATLANTIC WITH SHOWERS. FINALLY EXPECT CONSIDERABLE CONVECTION
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 23N BETWEEN 55W-70W DUE TO UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA





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