[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 061150
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE NOV 06 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR
12N16W TO 11N20W AND 9N26W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 9N26W
9N38W AND 9N55W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE
FROM 3N TO 12N TO THE EAST OF 45W...AND FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN
40W AND 60W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM
7N TO 10N BETWEEN 45W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS MOVING FROM EASTERN MISSOURI THROUGH
MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA...AND INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH...THAT WAS MOVING THROUGH THE
EASTERN U.S.A. AT LEAST 24 HOURS AGO...HAS MOVED MORE TO THE
NORTHEAST INTO THE PART OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS OFF
THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH SUPPORTS
A  STATIONARY FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N73W TO A 1011 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N74W. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM
THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN FLORIDA...CURVING
TO 28N86W IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A WARM FRONT CONTINUES
FROM 28N86W TO A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N88W
JUST OFF THE MISSISSIPPI COAST. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM
THE 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER...TO 29N88W AND 28N96W...
TO A SOUTH TEXAS 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER. THE COLD FRONT
CONTINUES FROM THE SOUTH TEXAS LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO THE TEXAS
BIG BEND. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO FROM 26N TO 28N BETWEEN
92W AND 97W. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION
ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN FLORIDA AND 92W.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS PUSHING
MOISTURE FROM MEXICO INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND BEYOND
FLORIDA INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE MOISTURE IS TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 28N80W 24N90W BEYOND
21N98W.

A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 21N97W ALONG THE MEXICO
COAST. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
TO THE SOUTH OF 26N TO THE WEST OF 89W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT
THE 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 30N86W WITH A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 28N88W AND 28N97W. EXPECT
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE
NORTH OF THE FRONT TO THE EAST OF 92W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS THE ENTIRE AREA.
BROKEN MULTILAYERED MOISTURE COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM SOUTHWESTERN HAITI TO THE
COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR 15N84W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 15N TO THE
WEST OF 73W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 73W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 24N70W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...TO 19N73W OFF THE WESTERN
COAST OF HAITI. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 20N TO 26N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W.

ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS OCCURRING IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...TO THE
NORTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF 80W. THIS PRECIPITATION IS
OCCURRING IN AN AREA OF SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL CONFLUENT
WIND FLOW UNDER UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N75W IN COLOMBIA...THROUGH
7N81W JUST TO THE SOUTH OF PANAMA...BEYOND 7N85W IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 12 TO THE WEST
OF 76W...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 4N TO 6N TO THE EAST OF 82W
IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N73W TO A 1011 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N74W. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES
FROM THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN FLORIDA...
CURVING TO 28N86W IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN 75 NM TO THE
NORTHWEST OF 31N74W 32N69W.

A BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM HISPANIOLA TO 23N66W 28N64W BEYOND 32N63W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N50W
TO 27N45W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG FROM 22N TO 25N BETWEEN 44W AND 47W...ISOLATED
MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 24N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALSO TO THE NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN
50W AND 60W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 35N39W TO 33N45W
AND 29N47W TO 28N65W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N20W
TO 26N23W 22N25W 19N27W...TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. A COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N10W...TO THE EASTERN CANARY ISLANDS...
TO 27N20W AND CURVING TO 25N28W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE NORTH OF 25N
TO THE EAST OF 25W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT IS FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN 36W
AND 42W IS RELATED TO REMNANT MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM ABOUT 24 HOURS AGO.

REMNANTS OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM AT LEAST
24 HOURS AGO ARE ALONG 17N18W 11N20W 8N21W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT WINDS AND SEAS FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FOR THE
FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...TO THE NORTH OF 24N TO
THE EAST OF 40W WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING
FROM 8 TO 11 FEET. A COLD FRONT WILL BE ALONG 31N75W 26N80W IN
24 HOURS...EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET
TO THE NORTH OF 28N TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT TO 77W AND TO THE
NORTH OF 28N TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT TO 70W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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