[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 051133
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON NOV 05 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1045 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH NORTHWESTERN COASTAL
GUINEA-BISSAU TO 10N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 10N20W
TO 7N27W 7N40W 9N52W AND 8N58W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED STRONG FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 49W AND 51W...ISOLATED
MODERATE TO LOCALLY ELSEWHERE FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN 20W AND
30W...FROM 2N TO 10N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W...AND FROM 5N TO 10N
BETWEEN 40W AND 60W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
A 31N23W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 26N16W 18N19W 12N22W
AND 7N27W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN U.S.A.
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA
AND NORTHERN FLORIDA...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 28N87W TO
COASTAL LOUISIANA AND THE LOUISIANA/TEXAS COASTAL BORDER. A
STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES INTO EAST TEXAS.

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
MOVES FROM MEXICO INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE WIND FLOW
GRADUALLY BECOMES WESTERLY AS IT MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST.
THE FLOW EVENTUALLY CROSSES FLORIDA...INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING PUSHED INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO AS IT MOVES FROM MEXICO...TO THE SOUTH OF 26N...INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO...AND BEYOND FLORIDA INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN.

A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 26N89W. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE
1010 MB DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 30N84.5W IN
30 HOURS. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE EAST OF 93W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 25N60W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO 15N60W IN THE EAST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. COMPARATIVELY
DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COVERS THE AREA
THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 70W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS FEATURE.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN
SEA TO THE WEST OF THE 25N60W 15N64W TROUGH...MOSTLY TO THE WEST
OF 70W.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS
OCCURRING IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...FROM THE
HONDURAS COAST TO 18N BETWEEN 83W AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS.
THIS PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING IN AN AREA OF SURFACE-TO-LOW
LEVEL CONFLUENT WIND FLOW UNDER UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N/10N BETWEEN 74W IN COLOMBIA
BEYOND 84W IN COSTA RICA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH
OF 10N TO THE WEST OF COLOMBIA. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN A 30 TO 60 NM RADIUS OF 6N79W AND 6N82W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 11N TO 14N
BETWEEN 72W AND 77W FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS OR SO OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 32N56W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 25N60W...TO 15N64W IN THE EAST
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N56W TO 27N63W AND 25N71W. A SURFACE TROUGH
IS ABOUT 320 NM TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONT...ALONG
23N60W 21N65W 20N72W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS
AND WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE NORTH OF 24N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE STILL FROM 19N TO 20N BETWEEN 62W
AND 71W.

A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 30N71W. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE 32N56W 25N71W COLD FRONT.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 35N37W TO 31N44W AND 15N57W.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 31N23W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER TO 26N16W 18N19W 12N22W AND 7N27W. A STATIONARY FRONT
PASSES THROUGH 32N18W TO A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 30N22W. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM THE LOW CENTER
TO 26N30W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 26N TO 32N BETWEEN 19W AND 22W...
FROM 16N TO 18N BETWEEN 32W AND 34W...AND WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS
OF 15N36.5W...ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 20N
TO THE EAST OF 30W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT WINDS AND SEAS FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FOR THE
FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE LINE 31N51W 23N35W STARTING THE FORECAST PERIOD AND THEN
AT 24 HOURS TO THE NORTH OF 24N TO THE EAST OF 40W...AND
A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA THROUGH 31N76W
TO 25N80W TO THE NORTH OF THE 25N TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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