[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON NOV 05 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN COASTAL SENEGAL
TO 11N19W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 11N19W TO 6N30W 6N40W
7N53W...AND TO NORTHWESTERN COASTAL SURINAME NEAR 6N57W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN 20W AND 30W...FROM
2N TO 10N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W...FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN
40W AND 50W...AND FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 32N25W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER TO 24N20W 18N21W 16N23W AND 8N28W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM MEXICO
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE WIND FLOW GRADUALLY BECOMES
WESTERLY AS IT MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST. THE FLOW EVENTUALLY
CROSSES FLORIDA...INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS BEING IT MOVES FROM MEXICO...TO THE SOUTH OF 27N...
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND BEYOND FLORIDA INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN. A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 27N90W.
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA.
PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE
1010 MB DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 30N84.5W IN
36 HOURS. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS TO THE NORTH OF 26N
BETWEEN 85W AND 91W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 23N62W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO 16N64W IN THE EAST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. COMPARATIVELY
DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COVERS THE AREA
THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 70W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS FEATURE.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN
SEA TO THE WEST OF THE 23N62W 16N64W TROUGH...MOSTLY TO THE WEST
OF 70W.

SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS OCCURRING IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...TO THE
NORTH OF 15N IN HONDURAS BETWEEN 83W AND 90W IN NORTHERN
GUATEMALA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. THIS
PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING IN AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONFLUENT
WIND FLOW UNDER UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N76W IN COLOMBIA TO 8N79W...
BEYOND 9N83W IN SOUTHERN COSTA RICA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
TO THE SOUTH OF 10N TO THE WEST OF COLOMBIA...BUT MORE
PROBABLE TO THE SOUTH OF PANAMA AND TO THE WEST OF COLOMBIA
IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 11N TO 14N
BETWEEN 70W AND 78W FOR THE FIRST 18 HOURS OR SO OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 32N59W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 27N61W 23N62W...TO 16N64W IN
THE EAST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD
FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N57W TO 28N62W AND 25N70W.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ABOUT 320 NM TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
THE FRONT...ALONG 23N60W 21N65W 20N72W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 49W AND 61W...
AND FROM 18N TO 21N BETWEEN 60W AND 73W.

A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 31N71W. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE 32N57W 25N70W COLD FRONT.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 34N39W TO 28N47W 23N55W
AND 19N56W.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 32N25W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER TO 24N20W 18N21W 16N23W AND 8N28W. A COLD FRONT REACHES
32N15W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 32N15W TO 1011 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N23W. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM
THE LOW CENTER TO 27N31W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER TO 23N29W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 30N TO 32N BETWEEN 17W AND
20W...ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE
EAST OF 30W...FROM 16N TO 17N BETWEEN 32W AND 34W...FROM 14N
TO 15N BETWEEN 37W AND 38W...AND FROM 12N TO 13N BETWEEN
40W AND 42W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT WINDS AND SEAS FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FOR THE
FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...TO THE NORTH OF 29N
BETWEEN 53W AND 66W...TO THE NORTH OF 24N TO THE EAST OF
45W...AND ABOUT 48 HOURS INTO THE FORECAST PERIOD
A 1005 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
NEAR 32N79W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT









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