[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 310550
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU MAY 31 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 14N56W TO 6N58W MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. THE
WAVE LIES IN AN AREA OF MAXIMUM MOISTURE PRESENT IN TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COINCIDES WITH
THE WAVE AND IS ENHANCING CONVECTION NEAR THE AXIS. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE AXIS FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN
46W-52W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
7N-11N BETWEEN 52W-57W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF
GUINEA AT 9N13W TO 6N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N20W ALONG
2N34W 3N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN
23W-31W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
DRY AIR ALOFT COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF OF MEXICO BETWEEN
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO AND TEXAS...AND AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM LOUISIANA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THIS DRY
AIR ACCOMPANIED BY SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A WEAK 1014 MB HIGH
NEAR 26N88W IS HELPING MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
BASIN. AT 0300 UTC...A SURFACE TROUGH WAS ANALYZED ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 22N87W TO 17N91W...AND IS HELPING PRODUCE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE E ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
BELIZE. THIS AREA ALSO LIES UNDER DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AROUND THE E
SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THIS AREA OF DIFFLUENCE IS ALSO
SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE SE GULF AND STRAITS OF
FLORIDA WITH A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS N OF CUBA FROM 23N-24N
BETWEEN 83W-85W. AN AREA OF MOISTURE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN THAT
HAS ALREADY MOVED ACROSS THE SE GULF WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NWD
ACROSS FLORIDA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS
THE SRN HALF OF THE PENINSULA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH W OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
ALONG 78W IS PROVIDING MOIST CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WRN
CARIBBEAN. CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ACROSS CUBA. STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COVER BELIZE AND
THE FAR ERN YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. STRONG
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALSO COVER MUCH COSTA RICA AND PORTIONS OF
PANAMA ASSOCIATED WITH THE E PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDING
ACROSS COSTA RICA AND PANAMA TO A 1006 MB LOW OVER NRN COLOMBIA
AT 8N74W. MODERATE DRY AIR ALOFT COVERS THE CENTRAL AND ERN
CARIBBEAN AROUND THE E SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE BASIN
PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THIS AREA. TRADEWIND FLOW OF
15-20 KTS COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN. AN AREA OF MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE SE CARIBBEAN AHEAD OF A TROPICAL
WAVE STILL E OF THE ISLANDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 14N E OF 65W. MOIST CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN THROUGH AT LEAST THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC...
A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS JUST OFFSHORE OF FLORIDA
FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 78W-80W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ALSO EXTEND FROM
21N-25N BETWEEN 69W-80W...AND FROM 24N-29N BETWEEN 70W-73W. SOME
OF THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE ALOFT WRAPPING
AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN ONE AND CONTINUES ALONG 72W. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS TO THE E ALONG 60W SUPPORTING A FEW PATCHES OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NEAR 25N59W AND 29N59W. THIS UPPER TROUGH
IS ALSO ENHANCING CONVECTION NEAR A TROPICAL WAVE AND THE ITCZ
REGION IN THE TROPICAL ATLC. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE IS ALONG 50W
SUPPORTING A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 24N43W WHICH IS PROVIDING FAIR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL ATLC. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH COVERS MUCH OF THE ERN GULF ALONG 34W. HOWEVER...A
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC CENTERED NEAR 13N32W
MAINTAINING FAIR CONDITIONS AND LITTLE CONVECTION NEAR THE ITCZ.
GOES-R DUST ENHANCEMENT IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW AN AREA OF
SAHARAN DUST EXTENDING FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA TO NEAR 45W
WHICH FURTHER SUPPORTS A STABLE ENVIRONMENT AND FAIR
CONDITIONS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON




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