[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 310002
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED MAY 30 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF POST TROPICAL CYCLONE BERYL AT 30/2100 UTC IS NEAR
34.9N 76.1W. BERYL IS ALSO ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM WSW OF CAPE
HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. BERYL IS MOVING EAST NORTHEAST AT 18
KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB. THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 35 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 45
KNOTS. BERYL HAS LOST ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND THUS HAS
BEEN RENAMED. GALE-FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST
OF NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH TONIGHT...AND THEN CONTINUE OFF SHORE
IN THE ATLANTIC FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS
...INCLUDING RIP CURRENTS...ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTS
OF NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA THIS EVENING. BERYL
IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES
OVER EXTREME NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...AND 1 TO 3 INCHES
OVER EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA. SEE THE LAST FORECAST
ADVISORY BULLETIN UNDER THE AWIPS/WMO HEADERS...MIATCMAT2/WTNT22
KNHC...AND THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS ON BERYL.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 14N55W 6N57W. THE
TROPICAL WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH A NEARBY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM
11N-16N BETWEEN 51W-57W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE
AXIS FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 50W-55W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EMERGES OFF THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR
9N13W TO 6N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N20W TO 3N34W TO N
BRAZIL NEAR 3N51W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
4N-7N BETWEEN 20W-29W...AND FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 44W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1015 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AT
25N88W. 5-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS DOMINATES THE GULF OF
MEXICO WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS
WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE HOWEVER OVER THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA...W CUBA...THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE YUCATAN NEAR 18N91W
PRODUCING CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EXPECT MORE RAIN AND SHOWERS OVER S
FLORIDA...AND THE SE GULF OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 22N89W
15N92W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ALSO CENTERED OVER THE TROUGH AT
18N91W. THE SYSTEM IS PRODUCING SCATTERED RAIN AND SHOWERS
THROUGHOUT THE PENINSULA AND GUATEMALA. MORE RAIN AND SHOWERS
ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND CUBA N OF 20N. ANOTHER SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS SW OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS EXTENDS FROM 19N83W TO
NICARAGUA AT 11N85W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
10N-17N BETWEEN 83W-86W. FURTHER S...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN AND PANAMA FROM
7N-11N BETWEEN 77W-82W. FURTHER E...RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE OVER
HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... AND THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE
OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND THE BAHAMAS FROM 20N-26N BETWEEN
68W-80W. A 1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
NEAR 24N41W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS. ANOTHER 1021
MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 34N18W PRODUCING
SIMILAR FAIR WEATHER. OF NOTE... A TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. SEE ABOVE. A LARGE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST
ALSO EXTENDS FROM AFRICA TO 45W S OF 25N. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER BERMUDA. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 15N BETWEEN
20W-50W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA





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