[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271802
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM BERYL IS CENTERED NEAR 30.1N 79.9W AT 27/1800
UTC...ABOUT 110 MILES/175 KM TO THE EAST OF JACKSONVILLE
FLORIDA...AND ABOUT 120 MILES/195 KM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
BRUNSWICK GEORGIA. BERYL IS MOVING WEST AT 9 KNOTS. THE
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 55 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS.
ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS INCREASING CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE
STORM MAINLY WITHIN 90 NM OVER THE SE QUADRANT FROM THE
CENTER...AND BERYL HAS TRANSITIONED FROM SUBTROPICAL TO
TROPICAL. PLEASE READ THE FORECAST ADVISORY BULLETIN UNDER THE
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS...MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC...AND THE PUBLIC
ADVISORY MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS ON BERYL.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLC TROPICAL WAVE WAS LOCATED FROM 15N41W TO 07N42W ON THE
12 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS...CLOSE TO AN AREA OF CYCLONIC TURNING
NOTED IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS IN THE SATELLITE DERIVED WIND
FIELDS. A 1252 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED MAINLY STRAIGHT NE FLOW AT
THE SURFACE...INDICATING THIS FEATURE MAY BE MORE OF A MID LEVEL
WAVE AT THE CURRENT TIME. THE WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST THAT TOGETHER WITH FRESH NE TRADE WIND
FLOW IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 08N TO 10N
BETWEEN 39W AND 42W. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INITIALIZE WITH A
BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH AROUND 45W...BUT WITH ONLY MODEST
CYCLONIC TURNING AT THE SURFACE PUSHING WEST THROUGH 50W S OF
10N THROUGH LATE SUN.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE TROPICAL EASTERN ATLC FROM
THE BORDER OF GUINEA AND SIERRA LEONE TO 06N18W. THE ITCZ
EXTENDS FROM 06N18W TO 03N27W TO 05N37W TO 04N48W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF ITCZ AXIS
BETWEEN 18W AND 28W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM BERYL TO THE NE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. DRY SUBSIDENT NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE WEST
SIDE OF BERYL IS KEEPING ALMOST CLOUD FREE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
GULF TODAY. A 1017 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED ALONG THE
LOUISIANA COAST. LIGHT NE TO E SURFACE WINDS PREVAIL EXCEPT FOR
MODERATE SE FLOW CLOSE TO THE TEXAS COAST.

CARIBBEAN SEA...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS NOTED OFF THE EAST COAST OF YUCATAN...AND FROM THE COAST OF
NICARAGUA TO JUST S OF JAMAICA NEAR 17N76W. THIS ACTIVITY IS IN
PART RELATED TO AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM BERYL TO THE NE
YUCATAN. MODERATE SE FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...WITH
MODERATE TO FRESH E FLOW OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
CONVERGING OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND AIDING CONVECTION IN THAT
AREA. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN...IN MOIST SW MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW BETWEEN THE
UPPER TROUGH N OF THE AREA AND A MID TO UPPER RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25
KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS...FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN
67W AND 77W.

ATLANTIC...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS ALONG 68W TO THE
EAST OF BERYL. AN ASSOCIATED 1023 MB NEAR 34N68W. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS NOTED FROM 22N56W TO 18N62W. 10 TO 15 KT E FLOW IS
NOTED BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND THE HIGH PRES...FROM 20N TO 24N
BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. FURTHER EAST...AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
32N40W TO 13N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM
08N TO 10N BETWEEN 39W AND 42W ON THE SE SIDE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH...AND NEAR A WEAK MID LEVEL TROPICAL WAVE NOTED ON
SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. A DEEP LAYER RIDGE DOMINATES THE
EASTERN ATLANTIC WITH A 1024 SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 29N27W.
SAHARAN DUST IS NOTED FROM 10N TO 25N E OF 40W. PLEASE READ THE
HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE WINDS AND
SEA HEIGHTS THAT ARE OCCURRING TO THE NORTH OF 28N TO THE WEST
OF 73W...RELATED TO THE CONDITIONS AROUND THE AREA OF TROPICAL
STORM BERYL.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
CHRISTENSEN





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